Security and defence

Australians’ sense of safety has been up and down in recent years as people have reacted to the course of the pandemic and to global uncertainty. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and instability closer to home also appear to be having an effect on public opinion, with the 2022 Lowy Institute Poll fielded in March, soon after the war in Ukraine started. In 2022, a bare majority of Australians (53%) say they feel ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’, a 17-point drop from 2021 (70%). This is only marginally higher than the record low of Australians feeling safe in 2020, during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. This year’s result is a striking 39 points below the high point of feelings of safety in 2008 and 2010 (92%).

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had a clear impact on threat perceptions for many Australians. Russia’s foreign policy tops the list of threats in 2022, with 68% of Australians saying Russia’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years. This marks a striking 36-point increase since 2017 (32%).

At the same time, Australians are also concerned about China and the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait. More than six in ten Australians (65%) say China’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a 29-point increase from 2017 (36%). Concern about military conflict between the United States and China — the world’s two superpowers — has been on an upward trajectory in Australia. In 2022, 64% of Australians say ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ poses a critical threat, a 12-point increase from 2021 (52%) and 29 points higher than in 2020 (35%).

While anxiety about Russia and China has overtaken other threats, Australians continue to express a high level of concern over other non-traditional security threats. Two-thirds of the population (64%) say ‘cyberattacks from other countries’ pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests. A similar number of Australians (62%) say climate change poses a critical threat, steady from last year. By contrast, Australians’ concern about ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’ continues on a downward trajectory. In 2022, only 42% say Covid-19 and other potential epidemics pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years. This marks a dramatic 17-point fall from 2021 (59%), and is 34 points below the 2020 result (76%) at the outset of the pandemic.

As North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear weapons capabilities, the majority of Australians (58%) consider North Korea’s nuclear program to be a critical threat. A smaller proportion of Australians (48%) view international terrorism as a critical threat.

At a time of record levels of support for democracy, Australians are increasingly concerned about rising authoritarianism. In 2022, a majority (55%) say ‘the rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a substantial 14-point increase since 2020 (41%). However, concern about ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ has stabilised, with 49% saying foreign interference poses a critical threat.

The Australian public appear to be increasingly concerned about the economy, with 55% saying ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s interests, which has risen five points since 2021 (50%). Only a third of Australians (34%) regard ‘political instability in the United States’ as a critical threat. However, a majority (56%) say political instability in Australia’s treaty ally poses ‘an important but not critical’ threat.