Security and defence

Threats to Australia's vital interests

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had a clear impact on threat perceptions for many Australians. Russia’s foreign policy tops the list of threats in 2022, with 68% of Australians saying Russia’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years. This marks a striking 36-point increase since 2017 (32%).

At the same time, Australians are also concerned about China and the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait. More than six in ten Australians (65%) say China’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a 29-point increase from 2017 (36%). Concern about military conflict between the United States and China — the world’s two superpowers — has been on an upward trajectory in Australia. In 2022, 64% of Australians say ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ poses a critical threat, a 12-point increase from 2021 (52%) and 29 points higher than in 2020 (35%).

While anxiety about Russia and China has overtaken other threats, Australians continue to express a high level of concern over other non-traditional security threats. Two-thirds of the population (64%) say ‘cyberattacks from other countries’ pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests. A similar number of Australians (62%) say climate change poses a critical threat, steady from last year.

By contrast, Australians’ concern about ‘Covid- 19 and other potential epidemics’ continues on a downward trajectory. In 2022, only 42% say Covid- 19 and other potential epidemics pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years. This marks a dramatic 17-point fall from 2021 (59%), and is 34 points below the 2020 result (76%) at the outset of the pandemic.

As North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear weapons capabilities, the majority of Australians (58%) consider North Korea’s nuclear program to be a critical threat. A smaller proportion of Australians (48%) view international terrorism as a critical threat.

At a time of record levels of support for democracy, Australians are increasingly concerned about rising authoritarianism. In 2022, a majority (55%) say ‘the rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a substantial 14-point increase since 2020 (41%). However, concern about ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ has stabilised, with 49% saying foreign interference poses a critical threat.

The Australian public appear to be increasingly concerned about the economy, with 55% saying ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s interests, which has risen five points since 2021 (50%). Only a third of Australians (34%) regard ‘political instability in the United States’ as a critical threat. However, a majority (56%) say political instability in Australia’s treaty ally poses ‘an important but not critical’ threat.

Security and defence
Threats to Australia's vital interests

Question

Here is a list of possible threats to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years. For each one, please select whether you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all.

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

Russia's foreign policy

China's foreign policy

A military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan

Cyberattacks from other countries

Climate change

North Korea's nuclear program

The rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world

A severe downturn in the global economy

Foreign interference in Australian politics

International terrorism

Covid-19 and other potential epidemics

Political instability in the United States

From 2006–2009, this question asked about ‘global warming’ rather than ‘climate change’. In 2020, this question asked about ‘novel coronavirus (Covid-19) and other potential epidemics' rather than 'Covid-19 and other potential epidemics'.