Relations with the US and China

As Australia faces an era of strategic competition between the world’s superpowers, the public is increasingly concerned about conflict between the United States and China. In 2022, 64% of Australians say ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years, a 12-point increase from 2021 (52%) and 29 points higher than in 2020 (35%). For the first time, a slim majority of Australians (51%) would favour using the Australian military ‘if China invaded Taiwan and the United States decided to intervene’. This marks an eight-point increase since the question was last asked in 2019.

A bare majority (51%) also say that Australia should remain neutral in the event of a military conflict between China and the United States. This figure has fallen six points since 2021. Almost half (46%) say Australia should support the United States in such a conflict, a five-point increase from last year. Only 1% say Australia should support China.

As in 2021, there is a generational difference on this question. More than half the population aged over 45 (55%) say Australia should support the United States, while only 36% of Australians aged 18–44 agree with that approach. Younger Australians are more likely to say Australia should remain neutral, with six in ten Australians aged 18–44 (60%) choosing this position. Only 43% of Australians aged 45 and over prefer neutrality.

In 2022, the number of Australians who see the ANZUS alliance as important to their security has returned to record highs. Nine in ten Australians (87%) say the alliance is ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security. This marks a nine-point increase from 2021, and is equal to the highest levels of support expressed in 2012, during former President Barack Obama’s administration.

More than three-quarters of Australians (77%) now agree that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’, an increase of eight points since 2019. However, a similar number (76%) also agree that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia were under threat. Two-thirds (64%) agree that ‘the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China’, an eight-point increase from 2019.

Most Australians continue to hold very low levels of trust in China, with 12% saying they trust China somewhat or a great deal, a 40-point decrease since 2018. Only 11% of Australians say they have a lot or some confidence in President Xi Jinping to do the right thing regarding world affairs. This figure has halved since 2020 (22%) and has fallen by 32 points since 2018 (43%).

Trust in the United States has rebounded from its historic low levels in 2019 and 2020. Two-thirds of Australians (65%) trust the United States to act responsibly. This result is stable from 2021, but remains 18 points below the levels of trust expressed towards the United States in 2009 and 2011 (83%).

In 2022, fewer Australians express confidence in US President Joe Biden than in 2021. Six in ten Australians (58%) say they have some or a lot of confidence in President Biden, an 11-point decrease from his inauguration year of 2021. This remains 28 points above the confidence expressed in former President Donald Trump in 2020 (30%).