Relations with the US and China
As Australia faces an era of strategic competition between the world’s superpowers, the public is increasingly concerned about conflict between the United States and China. In 2022, 64% of Australians say ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years, a 12-point increase from 2021 (52%) and 29 points higher than in 2020 (35%). For the first time, a slim majority of Australians (51%) would favour using the Australian military ‘if China invaded Taiwan and the United States decided to intervene’. This marks an eight-point increase since the question was last asked in 2019.
A bare majority (51%) also say that Australia should remain neutral in the event of a military conflict between China and the United States. This figure has fallen six points since 2021. Almost half (46%) say Australia should support the United States in such a conflict, a five-point increase from last year. Only 1% say Australia should support China.
As in 2021, there is a generational difference on this question. More than half the population aged over 45 (55%) say Australia should support the United States, while only 36% of Australians aged 18–44 agree with that approach. Younger Australians are more likely to say Australia should remain neutral, with six in ten Australians aged 18–44 (60%) choosing this position. Only 43% of Australians aged 45 and over prefer neutrality.
In 2022, the number of Australians who see the ANZUS alliance as important to their security has returned to record highs. Nine in ten Australians (87%) say the alliance is ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security. This marks a nine-point increase from 2021, and is equal to the highest levels of support expressed in 2012, during former President Barack Obama’s administration.
More than three-quarters of Australians (77%) now agree that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’, an increase of eight points since 2019. However, a similar number (76%) also agree that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia were under threat. Two-thirds (64%) agree that ‘the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China’, an eight-point increase from 2019.
Most Australians continue to hold very low levels of trust in China, with 12% saying they trust China somewhat or a great deal, a 40-point decrease since 2018. Only 11% of Australians say they have a lot or some confidence in President Xi Jinping to do the right thing regarding world affairs. This figure has halved since 2020 (22%) and has fallen by 32 points since 2018 (43%).
Trust in the United States has rebounded from its historic low levels in 2019 and 2020. Two-thirds of Australians (65%) trust the United States to act responsibly. This result is stable from 2021, but remains 18 points below the levels of trust expressed towards the United States in 2009 and 2011 (83%).
In 2022, fewer Australians express confidence in US President Joe Biden than in 2021. Six in ten Australians (58%) say they have some or a lot of confidence in President Biden, an 11-point decrease from his inauguration year of 2021. This remains 28 points above the confidence expressed in former President Donald Trump in 2020 (30%).
16 questions match this theme
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Security and defence
Military conflict between China and United States
In the event of a military conflict between China and United States, please say which one of the following statements comes closest to your own personal view.
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United States
Attitudes to the United States
I am now going to read you some different arguments about the alliance relationship with the United States. Please indicate whether you agree or disagree.
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Security and defence
Foreign military based in Australia
Are you personally in favour or against Australia allowing the following countries to base military forces here in Australia?
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Security and defence
Threats to Australia's vital interests
Do you see the following possible threat as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat to Australia's vital interests in the next ten years?
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Relations with the US and China
Good relations with the US and China
Is it possible to have good relations with both the United States and China?
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United States
Military action under ANZUS
Under what circumstances should Australia act in accordance with our military alliance with the United States?
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Relations with the US and China
Relations with superpowers - US and China
Is Australia's relationship with China or the United States more important to Australia?
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Relations with the US and China
Relations with superpowers
Should the Australian government prioritise the United States or China, even if it may harm relations with the other?
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Australian foreign policy
Australia's bilateral relationships
In your opinion, are Australia's with the following countries improving, worsening, or staying about the same.
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Relations with the US and China
The world's leading superpower
Will China replace the United States as the world's leading superpower?
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Australian foreign policy
Australia's bilateral relationships under the Rudd government
Since the Rudd government was elected in November 2007, do you think Australia's relations with each of the following countries are now better or worse?
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United States
US power in the coming decade
Do you think the United States will be stronger or weaker as an economic and military power in the next ten years?
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United States
Changing importance of ANZUS
Do you think our alliance with the United States is becoming more important, less important or is the importance of the alliance about the same?
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Relations with the US and China
War over Taiwan
Should Australia act in accordance with ANZUS even if it means going to war with China over the independence of Taiwan?
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