Lowy Institute Poll 2023 Report

Security and defence policy

Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic began and more than a year after the Australian government removed most public health restrictions, anxiety about ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’ continues to fall. Only three in ten (30%) Australians now see the issue as a critical threat. This is a 12-point decrease from 2022, and a dramatic 46-point decrease from the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 (76%).

This year has seen major developments in Australia’s defence policy. On 14 March, just as fieldwork for this Poll commenced, the prime ministers of Australia and the United Kingdom and the president of the United States (AUKUS leaders) met in San Diego to announce the details of their plan for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. On 24 April, after the vast majority of fieldwork for this poll had been completed, the Australian government released a public version of the Defence Strategic Review, a major report on Australia’s defence posture and structure.

AUKUS and nuclear-powered submarines

Regarding the AUKUS trilateral partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, around half of Australians think it will make Australia (49%) and the region (46%) safer. These opinions remain largely unchanged from last year. Notably, the number of Australians who have not heard of AUKUS or are not sure if it will make Australia or the region safer also did not shift significantly from 2022, despite heavy media coverage of AUKUS during fieldwork for this Poll.

Two-thirds of Australians (67%) are either ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ in favour of the decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS, a similar result to that in 2022 (70%). However, in 2023, the proportion of Australians who say they ‘strongly’ favour the submarine acquisition dropped by seven points to 26%.

Although the AUKUS submarine program enjoys bipartisan political support in Australia, more Australians who lean towards the Liberal-National Coalition (86%) than those who lean towards the Labor Party (65%) are in favour of acquiring the submarines.¹

In April 2023, in a separate survey conducted one month after the San Diego announcement, we asked Australians further questions about the AUKUS submarine program. Australians have mixed feelings about the impact that the nuclear-powered submarines will have on the likelihood of conflict in the region. Three in ten (28%) think the submarines will deter military conflict and help ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific region, while two in ten (20%) think they will increase the risk of military conflict and instability. Around half either say the submarines will make no difference (32%) or are not sure of their impact (20%).

In the April survey, we also asked Australians whether they think the estimated cost of the program, widely reported as between $268 billion and $368 billion, is worth paying for the additional capability nuclear-powered submarines provide. Almost half (47%) say they do not think the capability is worth the cost, while one-quarter (27%) say it is worth it. The same number (27%) are not sure.

Defence strategy

In the same April 2023 survey, which concluded two days after the public release of the Defence Strategic Review, we asked Australians about where the country’s defence capabilities should be focused. Four in ten (40%) say that to keep Australia safe, we should invest more in military capabilities that protect Australia close to home. A quarter (26%) believe we should invest more in military capabilities that deter potential enemies far from our shores. A significant number (34%) are unsure.

The Quad

In May 2023, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States convened on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima for the third annual Quad Leaders’ Summit. The Lowy Institute Poll, which went into the field almost three months before that meeting, found that half of Australians think the Quad will make both Australia (51%) and the region (50%) safer. Very few believe it will make Australia (4%) or the region (5%) less safe. These opinions remain unchanged from last year.

US military in Australia

In 2011, former Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former US President Barack Obama announced the rotation of US marines through Darwin, a deployment that has continued and expanded since then. In April 2023, as part of the AUKUS submarine decision, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden announced that one UK and up to four US nuclear-powered submarines would rotate through the HMAS Stirling naval base in Western Australia.

This year, over half of Australians (57%) say they are either ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ in favour of allowing the United States to base military forces in Australia, down six points from 2022 (63%).

Australia’s support for Ukraine

In the second year of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Kyiv is preparing a counter-offensive. Amid debate among observers on whether the West can sustain momentum in its support for Ukraine, Australians continue to show strikingly high levels of support for assisting Ukraine.

Almost nine in ten (87%) say they ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ support ‘keeping strict sanctions on Russia’, steady from 2022 (89%). Around eight in ten (84%) support ‘admitting Ukrainian refugees into Australia’. Three-quarters (76%) support ‘providing military aid to Ukraine’.

While overall levels of support for these response measures remain very high, the number who ‘strongly support’ each measure waned — by 15 points each for admitting Ukrainian refugees and providing military aid to Ukraine, and by eight points for keeping strict sanctions on Russia.