Methodology
The 2025 Lowy Institute Poll reports the results of a nationally representative survey of 2117 Australian residents aged 18 and above, conducted between 3 and 16 March on behalf of the Lowy Institute by the Social Research Centre (SRC). The survey uses the Life in Australia™ panel, currently the only probability-based online panel in Australia.
On a simple random sample of 2117 responses, the margin of error is approximately 2.1%. Where a complex sample is used, the ‘design effect’ measures the additional variance in comparison with a simple random sample. The design effect for this survey is 1.23. For the 2025 Lowy Institute Poll survey, a completion rate of 65.6% was achieved. Taking into account the recruitment rate to the panel and attrition from the panel, the cumulative response rate is 2.6%.
Two questions in this report, on defence spending (page 21) and participating in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine (pages 22–23), were fielded in a separate ‘mini poll’ survey of 1997 adults across Australia running from 31 March to 14 April. On a simple random sample of 1997 responses, the margin of error is approximately 2.2%. Where a complex sample is used, the ‘design effect’ measures the additional variance in comparison with a simple random sample. The design effect for this survey is 1.26. For this mini poll, a completion rate of 61.9% was achieved.
Members of the SRC’s Life in Australia™ panel were randomly recruited via their landline or mobile telephone or via their address (rather than being self-selected volunteers) and agreed to provide their contact details to take part in surveys on a regular basis. Unlike other commercial online panels in Australia, the probability basis of the Life in Australia™ sampling method means results are generalisable to the national population and sampling errors and confidence intervals can be calculated.
In 2025, the sampling methodology for the Lowy Institute Poll was adjusted to improve the precision of estimates pertaining to political leaning. This involved selecting a sub-sample of the Life in Australia™ panel prior to fieldwork so that probabilities of selection were in proportion to a sampling weight that combines demographic data from the Census and Australian Electoral Commission data about past vote (2022). The changes resulted in an improved overall design effect of 1.23 compared to 1.27 in 2024. This sampling change may have had some impact on results that are highly correlated with political leaning.
SRC uses a mixed-mode approach for the survey, including online surveys (99% of respondents) and computer-assisted telephone interviewing (1% of respondents) to provide coverage of the offline population (households without internet access). In 2019, the Lowy Institute completed a three-year transition in the mode for the Poll, which until 2017 was conducted solely by telephone. The transition to a predominantly online survey panel reflects the declining response rates for telephone surveys and now widespread internet access in Australia.
The majority of questions in the 2025 survey are ‘tracking’ questions that have been asked in previous Lowy Institute Polls, allowing us to compare public opinion on a single issue over time. The order of questions in the questionnaire was different from the order presented in this report. Footnotes and markers (▲, ◀) have been used in the charts in the Poll to represent the change of mode, which can potentially elicit slightly different responses.
Totals in this report may not add to 100% due to rounding. Each response option has been rounded individually and grouped responses (e.g. those who ‘somewhat agree’ plus ‘strongly agree’) have not been rounded at the group level.
Following fieldwork, data are weighted for recruitment to the panel, probability of selection to the Lowy Institute Poll, probability of completing the survey conditional on being invited, and adjusted to ensure that the weighted sample resembles the Australian resident adult population on number of adults in household, age, education, gender, use of a language other than English at home, location (capital city or rest of state/territory), and state/territory of residence, where benchmarks are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Life in Australia™ members are offered a small incentive for joining the panel and another incentive for each survey they complete — $10 redeemable for a gift card for online panellists, a $10 gift card for offline panellists, or donation to a nominated charity.
Online responses were subject to quality control checks including examination of other specific responses and time taken to complete the survey. Telephone survey responses were subject to supervision by remote monitoring.