Lowy Institute Poll 2023 Report

Relations in the Indo-Pacific

Future roles of the United States and China

When it comes to global power and influence, the United States has long been the world leader, but China’s power is clearly growing. For the first time, the Lowy Institute Poll asked Australians what they think about the trajectories of US and Chinese power over the next decade.

Most Australians think China’s role will continue to grow. Six in ten (61%) believe that in ten years, China will play ‘a more important and powerful role as a world leader’. More than a quarter (28%) think China’s position will remain ‘about the same as now’, while only one in ten (10%) expect China to play a ‘less important and powerful’ role.

By comparison, close to half of Australians (45%) expect the role and influence of the United States as a world leader to stay the same as it is now, while two in ten (22%) expect the United States to become more important and powerful. One-third (32%) of Australians think the United States will play a less important and powerful role as a world leader.

United States

The US alliance

In 2023, the vast majority of Australians (82%) see the alliance between Australia and the United States as ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security, down five points from a record high last year of 87%.

High levels of public support for Australia’s alliance with the United States have been a consistent feature over 19 years of Lowy Institute polling. However, during this period, Australians’ support for the alliance has tended to be even higher during Democratic than Republican administrations.

At the same time, three-quarters of Australians (74%) think the alliance makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia. Six in ten (61%) think the alliance makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China.

Respect for the United States

US President Joe Biden has announced his intention to contest the US presidential election in 2024. At time of writing, his controversial predecessor, Donald Trump, appears to be the front-runner to receive the Republican nomination, despite facing a range of ongoing legal cases.

Three-quarters (73%) of Australians think the United States is more respected in the world under President Biden, whereas only one-quarter (24%) think the United States was more respected under President Trump.

China

Australia–China relations

The last five years have been a difficult period in Australia’s relations with China. Australian governments have been more public and forthright in voicing their concerns about the Chinese government’s intentions and behaviour in the region. China has sought to punish Australia for perceived transgressions, including through a range of measures blocking trade. For much of this period, high-level contact between the two countries was frozen.

The past 12 months, however, have seen a stabilisation of the relationship. Following the Albanese government coming to power, ministerial contact between the Chinese and Australian governments has resumed. In the months prior to this Poll being conducted, Australian and Chinese leaders and their foreign, trade and defence ministers had met in person or virtually for the first time in years. In more recent months, Chinese restrictions on some Australian products have eased and there have been signs of progress on other trade blockages.

Australians were asked what they thought of the relative improvement in relations. More than half (56%) say the resumption of ministerial contact is either ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ positive for Australia’s national interests. The remainder are split between those who say it will have ‘no impact’ (21%) and those who say it will have either a ‘very negative’ or ‘somewhat negative’ impact (20%) on Australia’s national interests.

China: economic partner or security threat?

The improved atmosphere in the bilateral relationship coincides with a shift in the way Australians view China. The Lowy Institute Poll tracks whether Australians see China as more of an economic partner or as more of a security threat to Australia. This year, the number who see China as more of a security threat is down 11 points from 2022 to a bare majority (52%). Correspondingly, the number who see China as more of an economic partner (44%) is up 11 points from last year.

Nonetheless, the fact remains that about half of Australians continue to see China as more of a security threat than as an economic partner — in contrast with the situation just three years ago. In 2020, the dominant view was that China was more of an economic partner (55%), while only 41% saw it as more of a security threat.

Moreover, when they look to the future, a strong majority (75%) of Australians continue to believe it is ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ likely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years — unchanged from 2022 (75%), and significantly higher than in 2018 (45%).

Chinese military base in the Pacific

The vast majority of Australians (87%) say they are ‘very concerned’ or ‘somewhat concerned’ about China potentially opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country. While the overall result is the same as for a similar question asked in 2022 (88%), the number who say they are ‘very concerned’ fell by 18 points.

In a different question posed in 2019, a smaller majority of Australians (55%) said China opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country would pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years.

Potential conflict

In the event of a military conflict between China and the United States, more than half of Australians (56%) say Australia should remain neutral, an increase of five points from 2022. Four in ten (42%) say Australia should support the United States, down four points on 2022.

It is interesting, however, to compare this to views on a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which many experts see as the most likely trigger for a conflict between the United States and China. Australia’s response to such a scenario has also been the subject of growing debate among commentators.

For the first time, we asked Australians if they would support a range of responses, acting together with the United States, if China invaded Taiwan. The vast majority (80%) would support ‘accepting Taiwanese refugees into Australia’. A similarly strong majority (76%) say they would support ‘Australia imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on China’.

Two-thirds (64%) would support ‘Australia sending arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government’. Six in ten (61%) would support ‘using the Australian Navy to help prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan’. The only option not supported by a majority is ‘sending Australian military personnel to Taiwan to help defend it from China’ (42%).¹

Australia and the Pacific

When the Albanese government assumed office in May 2022, it placed a high priority on improving relations with Pacific Island countries. In a new question this year, Australians were asked about the state of the country’s ties with its Pacific neighbours. Half (49%) think that Australia’s relations with Pacific Island countries are ‘staying about the same’, with the remainder roughly divided between those who think relations are improving (26%) and those who think relations are worsening (22%).

Australians remain overwhelmingly in favour of using aid to fund a range of objectives in Pacific Island countries. Almost all (92%) support providing aid for disaster relief, unchanged from 2022.

The vast majority of Australians favour providing aid ‘to help prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific’ (84%) as well as providing aid to the Pacific for ‘long-term economic development’ (83%), both steady on last year. Similarly, eight in ten (80%) support providing Covid-19 vaccines to Pacific Island countries, although this fell six points from last year. Support for climate-related aid to the Pacific remains steady at 76%.