In 2026, 62% said it was likely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has warned that China is undertaking the largest military build-up of any nation since the lead-up to the Second World War, with significant increases in the size of its navy, missile forces, and nuclear arsenal. Against this backdrop, a clear majority of Australians (62%) say it would be ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’ that China would be a military threat to Australia in 20 years, a seven-point drop from last year’s Poll and a 13-point drop from 2022 and 2023.