Lowy Institute Poll 2024 US Election Mini-Poll

Following the release of the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll in June, several events rocked the US presidential campaign. In July, the first of two assassination attempts on former president and Republican Party nominee Donald Trump took place at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. One week later, President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy for re-election, following which his vice president, Kamala Harris, entered the race as the Democratic Party nominee.

In September, the Lowy Institute fielded two additional Poll questions about the upcoming US presidential election to see how Australian public attitudes towards the contenders had changed. We asked these questions in a nationally representative survey conducted by the Social Research Centre between 2 and 16 September 2024, with a sample size of 2028 adults across Australia.

Poll results: 2024 US presidential election — Harris vs Trump

In March, when the Lowy Institute Poll was fielded, 68% of Australians said they would prefer Joe Biden to be elected as the US president in the upcoming election, while nearly one in three (29%) said they would prefer to see Donald Trump elected.

Six months later, in September 2024, almost three-quarters of Australians (73%) say they would prefer Kamala Harris to become president of the United States, while less than one in four (22%) say they would prefer Donald Trump.

This represents a clear change in the trajectory of Australian attitudes towards the candidates. Harris has gained five points over Biden’s result (68%) on the same question, while Trump slid seven points (from 29%) when pitted against Harris. A preference for Harris over Trump is far higher in Australia than in the United States, where polls fielded in a similar period showed Harris ahead by a much narrower margin.

Nevertheless, Trump continues to garner more Australian support than any other Republican nominee (Mitt Romney and John McCain) in the history of this Poll. In the September Mini-Poll result, a preference for Trump was higher among males (30%) than females (14%) and those who lean towards the One Nation party (73%) and Coalition (37%) compared to Labor (9%) or the Greens (4%).

Harris vs Trump — by issue

Australians’ clear preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump holds when asked about their relative impact on specific issues. A strong majority of Australians think Harris would be better than Trump for: global efforts to address climate change (81%); the United States’ global reputation (75%); Australia’s security (72%); and the global economy (68%).

By contrast, only a small to moderate minority of Australians prefer Trump over Harris on each of these issues, with his strongest appeal being on his impact on the global economy (28% preference).

While a preference for Harris on each of these issues is consistently very high among Labor or Greens supporters (all above 80%), there is a wider range of opinion, depending on the issue, among those who lean towards the Coalition. For example, close to three-quarters of Coalition supporters (73%) think Harris would be better for global efforts to address climate change, while only 50% think she would be better for the global economy.

Methodological note

The Lowy Institute’s 2024 US Election Mini-Poll reports the results of a national survey of 2028 adults across Australia, conducted by the Social Research Centre (SRC) between 2 and 16 September 2024. As with the main 2024 Lowy Institute Poll fielded in March and released publicly in June, the mini-poll used SRC’s Life in Australia™ panel, currently the only probability-based online panel in Australia. Members of the panel were randomly recruited via their landline or mobile telephone or via their address (rather than being self-selected volunteers) and agreed to provide their contact details to take part in surveys on a regular basis. SRC uses a mixed-mode approach for the panel, including online surveys (99% of respondents) and computer-assisted telephone interviewing (1% of respondents) to provide coverage of households without internet access. The survey consisted of three questions — two on the US election, and one on respondents’ leaning towards political parties in Australia.

On a simple random sample of 2028 responses, the margin of error is 2.2%. Where a complex sample is used, the ‘design effect’ measures the additional variance in comparison with a simple random sample. The design effect for this survey is estimated at 1.15. A completion rate of 63.2% was achieved for this Mini-Poll.