Security and defence policy
AUKUS and the Quad
On 16 September 2021, the leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the creation of a trilateral security partnership called AUKUS. A slim majority of Australians (52%) say AUKUS will make Australia safer. Around one in five (22%) say AUKUS will make no difference to Australia’s safety, and 7% say the partnership will make Australia less safe. There are partisan differences to these responses: 70% of Australians who lean towards the Liberal and National parties say AUKUS will make Australia safer, a view shared by only 47% of Australians who lean towards the Labor Party and 44% who lean towards the Greens.
Australians appear to see the implications of AUKUS in the region in a similar light. Around half (49%) say AUKUS will make the region more safe, 24% say the partnership will make no difference, and 8% say it will make the region less safe. A minority of Australians (11%) say they are not sure about AUKUS, and a similar proportion (8%) say they have never heard of AUKUS.
In 2021, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States convened in person as the Quad grouping. A slim majority of Australians say the Quad will make Australia (53%) and our region (52%) safer. One in five Australians say the Quad will make no difference to Australia (20%) or to the region (21%). Only a small proportion of Australians say the Quad will make Australia (4%) or the region (5%) less safe. One in ten Australians are unsure about the Quad’s impact on Australia (10%) and the region (11%), and 12% of Australians have never heard of the Quad. The Quad Leaders’ Tokyo Summit took place in May 2022, after the fieldwork for this poll had been completed.
Nuclear-powered submarines and nuclear weapons
The first announcement under AUKUS was Australia’s plan to acquire at least eight nuclear-powered submarines for operation by the Royal Australian Navy. Seven in ten Australians (70%) are strongly or somewhat in favour of this decision, while 28% say they are against the acquisition. This comes at a time when the number of Australians who want defence spending to be increased has jumped 20 points since 2019 to 51%.
The AUKUS initiative was announced by the former Coalition government. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines receives strong support from Australians who lean towards the Liberal and National parties (87%), while 65% of Australians who lean towards the Labor Party are in favour of the decision. Only 42% of Australians who lean towards the Greens are in favour of the acquisition.
In 2022, 36% of Australians are strongly or somewhat in favour of ‘Australia acquiring nuclear weapons in the future’, while 63% are either somewhat or strongly against the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Acquiring nuclear weapons
Thinking now about Australia’s defence. Would you be in favour or against Australia acquiring nuclear weapons in the future?
In the 2010 Lowy Institute Poll, responding to a different question, only 16% of Australians said they would support acquiring nuclear weapons ‘if some of Australia’s near neighbours were to begin to develop nuclear weapons’.
Foreign military in Australia
As the United States is committing to send more platforms to Australia, 63% of Australians are either strongly or somewhat in favour of allowing the United States ‘to base military forces here in Australia’. This is an increase of eight points since 2011, when the former Prime Minister Julia Gillard and President Barack Obama announced the first rotation of US troops through Darwin. Even more Australians (67%) are in favour of the United Kingdom basing military forces in Australia.
In 2022, respondents were also asked if they were in favour or against Australia allowing the UK to base military forces in Australia.
Indicates change in mode: see 2024 Methodology.
Australia–France relations
The announcement of the AUKUS partnership saw Australia cancel plans to acquire submarines from the French contractor Naval Group. This led to tensions in the bilateral relationship between Australia and France. Around half of Australians (49%) say both countries are equally to blame for the tensions in the Australia–France relationship. A third (35%) say Australia is more to blame, and 12% say France is more to blame. Australians also continue to hold high levels of trust in France and confidence in French President Macron.
Tensions in the Australia-France relationship
Now thinking about Australia’s relationship with France. Which country is more to blame for the tensions in the Australia–France relationship?
Use of Australian military forces
As Australians increasingly express concern about a potential conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, a slim majority of Australians (51%) would favour using the Australian military ‘if China invaded Taiwan and the United States decided to intervene’. This marks an eight-point increase since the question was last asked in 2019.
Four in ten Australians (40%) say Australia should deploy its military ‘if Russia invaded one of its neighbours’. This is nine points higher than in 2017.
Eight in ten (79%) support using the military ‘to stop a government from committing genocide and killing large numbers of its own people’. Three-quarters of Australians (75%) support using Australia’s military ‘to restore law and order in a Pacific nation’.
In 2017, the question asked ‘In response to China’s increasing military activities in the South China Sea, the United States has been conducting military operations designed to ensure freedom of navigation in the region. Are you personally in favour or against Australia conducting similar operations in an effort to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea?’ In 2017 and 2019, the question asked ‘To fight against violent extremist groups in Iraq and Syria’.
Indicates change in mode: see 2024 Methodology.
As in previous years, the majority of Australians (60%) support the Australian military being used ‘to conduct freedom of navigation naval operations in the South China Sea and other disputed areas claimed by China’.
However, the willingness of Australians to support deployment of the military to the Middle East has declined in recent years. Four in ten Australians (41%) say the Australian military should be used ‘to fight against violent extremist groups in the Middle East’, a nine-point decline from 2019 and 20 points lower than the level of support in 2017.