Lowy Institute Poll 2021 Report

Safety, security and Threats to Australia’s vital interests

Feelings of safety

After a year in which the bushfire crisis and the Covid-19 outbreak took a heavy toll on Australians’ sense of security, their feelings of safety appear to have rebounded this year from the record lows of 2020. In 2021, seven in ten Australians (70%) say they feel ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’. This represents an increase of 20 points since last year, but is still short of pre-pandemic levels. This year’s result is 22 points below the high point of feelings of safety in 2008 and 2010.

Threats to Australia’s vital interests

Concerns about non-traditional security threats continue to dominate Australians’ views of potential threats in 2021. Cyberattacks and climate change top the list of threats, with Covid-19 close behind. Six in ten Australians say that cyberattacks from other countries and climate change (62% and 61% respectively) pose critical Threats to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years.

Fewer Australians (59%) see Covid-19 as a critical threat in 2021, down 17 points from last year. This lower threat ranking may reflect Australia’s management of the pandemic, which almost all Australians (95%) say has been handled very or fairly well.

Traditional security threats, such as the risk of armed conflict in the region, remain of concern to many Australians. Perhaps responding to recent media reporting of increased military activities in the Taiwan Strait, a majority of Australians (52%) say a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, an increase of 17 points from 2020. Just over half the population (56%) also say that Australia–China relations pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years.

Australians’ concerns about nuclear threats and terrorism have eased in recent years, though still remain a critical threat for the majority. More than half the population (56%) see North Korea’s nuclear program as a critical threat, but this has fallen 9 points since 2017. Similarly, 51% of Australians say international terrorism is a critical threat, up 5 points since 2020, but 22 points below the high point of concern in 2006.

As Australia begins its recovery from the pandemic-​induced recession, optimism about the economy has rebounded, and concern about a severe downturn in the global economy has fallen back to 2019 levels. Five in ten Australians (50%) say a severe downturn in the global economy is a critical threat, a 21-point drop since 2020.

Other non-traditional threats elicit lower levels of concern. Views on foreign interference in Australian politics have seesawed since the issue came to prominence in 2017. Concern is on the rise again in 2021, with 49% saying foreign interference in Australian politics poses a critical threat, a 7-point increase from 2020.

ASIO has reported an increase in right-wing extremism activities in Australia in recent years. A minority of Australians (42%) say right-wing extremism is a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests.

The debate over the role of social media companies has been widespread in the past year, including when Facebook shut down its newsfeed in Australia. Four in ten Australians (39%) say the influence of social media companies poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests.

In 2020, Australia’s population shrank for the first time in 100 years, driven by a decline in overseas arrivals due to Covid-19 border closures. But only a fraction of Australians (9%) say a lower rate of immigration into Australia is a critical threat to the country’s vital interests. This finding adds to the complexity of views Australians have expressed about immigration in past Lowy Institute polls. In 2019, for example, 67% said that immigration has a positive impact on Australia’s economy. At the same time, half the population (47%) said that the total number of migrants coming to Australia each year was ‘too high’.¹

Foreign influence

Eight in ten are concerned about China’s influence on Australia’s political processes

Underlining the finding that more Australians perceive foreign interference as a critical threat to the nation’s vital interests, there has been a significant jump in the number of Australians concerned about influence from China. In a November 2020 survey, eight in ten Australians (82%) said they were concerned about China’s influence on Australia’s political processes, a 19-point increase from 2018. The majority of Australians (61%) also expressed concern about the United States’ influence on Australia’s political processes, steady from 2018.