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Lowy Institute Poll 2026 Report

Charles Lyons-Jones undefined
2026 Report

Relations in the Indo-Pacific

US alliance: importance to Australia’s security

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US alliance: importance to Australia’s security

Thinking now about the United States. How important is our alliance relationship with the United States for Australia’s security?

  1. 0%
  2. 20%
  3. 40%
  4. 60%
  5. 80%
  6. 100%
2005
45
27
72
2006
42
28
70
2007
36
27
63
2008
42
34
76
2009
55
30
85
2010
56
30
86
2011
59
23
82
2012
59
28
87
2013
54
28
82
2014
53
26
79
2015
53
27
80
2016
42
29
71
2017
53
24
77
2018
48
28
76
2019
38
34
72
2020
43
35
78
2021
47
31
78
2022
60
27
87
2023
51
31
82
2024
53
30
83
2025
49
31
80
2026
42
31
73
  • Very important
  • Fairly important

Indicates change in mode.

United States’ defence of Australia

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United States’ defence of Australia

Do you think the United States would or would not come to Australia’s defence if Australia were attacked by the military of another country?

Yes, would come to the defence of Australia 63No, would not come to the defence of Australia 35Don’t know 3

Australia and the United States under President Trump

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Australia and the United States under President Trump

Now that Donald Trump is President of the United States, which one of the following statements comes closest to your personal view?

  1. 0%
  2. 10%
  3. 20%
  4. 30%
  5. 40%
  6. 50%
  7. 60%
  8. 70%
5165645747 4529314051
  1. 2016
  3. 2018
  5. 2020
  7. 2022
  9. 2024
  11. 2026
  • Australia should remain close to the United States under President Donald Trump
  • Australia should distance itself from the United States under President Donald Trump

In 2016, the responses available were ‘Australia should remain close to the United States regardless of who is elected US President’ and ‘Australia should distance itself from the United States if it elects a president like Donald Trump’.
Indicates change in mode.

Policies of President Trump

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Policies of President Trump

Here are some policies of US President Donald Trump. Please indicate whether you approve or disapprove of each one:

  1. 100%
  2. 80%
  3. 60%
  4. 40%
  5. 20%
  6. 0%
  7. 20%
  8. 40%
  9. 60%
Conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent Iran obtaining nuclear weapons
50
49
Demanding US allies spend more on defence
59
40
Conducting airstrikes on Iranian regime targets to weaken or change the regime
59
39
Mass deportations of undocumented migrants currently living in the United States
62
37
Capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
65
33
Using tariffs to pressure other countries to comply with President Trump’s objectives
86
13
Pressuring Denmark to sell or hand over the self-governing territory of Greenland to the United States
91
8
  • Disapprove
  • Approve

Foreign military based in Australia

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Foreign military based in Australia

Are you personally in favour or against Australia allowing the United States to base military forces here in Australia?

  1. 60%
  2. 40%
  3. 20%
  4. 0%
  5. 20%
  6. 40%
  7. 60%
  8. 80%
United Kingdom
2022
11
21
45
22
United States
2011
2013
2022
2023
2026
22
21
35
20
17
17
35
26
14
22
41
22
15
27
40
17
19
24
35
20
  • Strongly against
  • Somewhat against
  • Somewhat in favour
  • Strongly in favour

In 2022, respondents were also asked if they were in favour or against Australia allowing the UK to base military forces in Australia.
Indicates change in mode.

Trump and travel to the United States

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Trump and travel to the United States

Now a question about travelling to the United States. Does Donald Trump being President of the United States make you more likely to travel to the United States, less likely, or does it make no difference to you?

More likely 5Less likely 65Makes no difference 30

China: economic partner or security threat

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China: economic partner or security threat

In your own view, is China more of an economic partner or more of a security* threat to Australia?

  1. 0%
  2. 20%
  3. 40%
  4. 60%
  5. 80%
  6. 100%
77798255343344445061 15131241636352534736 3132222
  2. 2016
  4. 2018
  6. 2020
  8. 2022
  10. 2024
  12. 2026
  • More of an economic partner to Australia
  • More of a security threat to Australia
  • Both equally

In 2015, 2017 and 2018, the question asked if China was ‘more of a military threat’.
Indicates change in mode.

China as a military threat

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China as a military threat

Do you think it is likely or unlikely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years?

  1. 0%
  2. 20%
  3. 40%
  4. 60%
  5. 80%
2009
15
26
41
2010
19
27
46
2011
18
26
44
2012
14
26
40
2013
16
25
41
2014
19
29
48
2015
14
25
39
2017
15
31
46
2018
14
31
45
2022
32
43
75
2023
29
46
75
2024
25
46
71
2025
27
42
69
2026
20
42
62
  • Very likely
  • Somewhat likely

Indicates change in mode.

China: Australian policy settings

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China: Australian policy settings

For each of the following, please indicate whether you think Australia should be doing more, less, or about the same as now:

  1. 0%
  2. 25%
  3. 50%
  4. 75%
  5. 100%
Pressuring China to improve human rights
2025
2026
61
28
9
62
28
9
Working with allies to deter China’s use of military force
2025
2026
60
29
9
54
34
11
Cooperating with China on climate change
2025
2026
49
32
18
51
30
17
Trading with China
2025
2026
30
43
26
33
44
22
Attracting investment from China
2025
2026
22
28
49
22
28
48
  • More
  • About the same
  • Less

Australia’s response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

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Australia’s response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

If China were to invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose Australia, acting together with the United States, taking the following actions.

  1. 0%
  2. 25%
  3. 50%
  4. 75%
  5. 100%
Accepting Taiwanese refugees into Australia
2023
2026
80
19
99
72
26
98
Australia imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on China
2023
2026
76
22
98
69
29
98
Australia sending arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government
2023
2026
64
34
98
61
36
97
Sending Australian military personnel to Taiwan to help defend it from China
2023
2026
42
56
98
44
53
97
Using the Australian Navy to help prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan
2023
2026
61
36
97
60
37
97
  • Support
  • Oppose

Opinion on US–China relations

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Opinion on US–China relations

Now thinking about the relationship between the United States and China. Which statement comes closer to your view?

The United States should place a greater priority on challenging China’s role in the world 16The United States should place a greater priority on stabilising its relationship with China 64Neither 20

Superpowers in the future

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Superpowers in the future

Now a question about the role and influence of countries in the future. Ten years from now, which of these countries or regions do you think will be the most important and powerful in the world?

  1. 0%
  2. 25%
  3. 50%
  4. 75%
  5. 100%
2025
56
27
9
5
2026
54
31
8
5
  • China
  • United States
  • Europe
  • India

Relations with superpowers: United States and China

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Relations with superpowers: United States and China

Now about Australia’s relationships with China and the United States. Which relationship do you think is more important to Australia?

  1. 0%
  2. 10%
  3. 20%
  4. 30%
  5. 40%
  6. 50%
  7. 60%
  8. 70%
263334303743 585455646153 13129413
  2. 2014
  4. 2016
  6. 2018
  8. 2020
  10. 2022
  12. 2024
  14. 2026
  • Australia’s relationship with China
  • Australia’s relationship with the United States
  • Both equally

Indicates change in mode.

Importance of the United Nations

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Importance of the United Nations

Now a question about the United Nations. In your opinion, how important is the United Nations to Australia’s national interests?

Very important 31Somewhat important 39Not very important 16Not at all important 13Don’t know 1

Influence in Pacific Island countries

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Influence in Pacific Island countries

Now thinking about the Pacific Islands region. In your opinion, which one of these countries has the most influence in Pacific Island countries?

  1. 0%
  2. 10%
  3. 20%
  4. 30%
  5. 40%
313933 343439 877 251818 333
  1. 2024
  2. 2025
  3. 2026
  • Australia
  • China
  • New Zealand
  • United States
  • Don’t know
Safety and threats

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