Lowy Institute Poll 2025 Report

Government performance and the 2025 election

Better foreign policy prime minister

In early March, prior to the May 2025 federal election, we asked Australians which political leader would be more competent at handling Australian foreign policy over the next three years. Incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (41%) led then Opposition leader Peter Dutton (29%) on this measure by 12 points. A significant number of Australians (29%) were undecided.

Better at managing Trump and Xi

Foreign policy does not often figure heavily in Australian federal election campaigns. However, global disruptions in 2025 focused public attention on Australia’s relationships with its main security ally, the United States under President Donald Trump, and main trading partner, China under President Xi Jinping.

In March, Australians were almost evenly split on whether Peter Dutton (35%) or Anthony Albanese (34%) would be better as prime minister at managing Australia’s relationship with the United States and Donald Trump.

By contrast, Anthony Albanese (45%) enjoyed a 20-point lead over Peter Dutton (25%) in Australians’ confidence in him to manage the relationship with China and Xi Jinping.

Better party by foreign policy issue

We also asked Australians which of the two major political parties they thought would do a better job at handling specific foreign policy issues. No party had a majority on any single issue.

The incumbent Labor government had the most pronounced leads over the Liberal–National Coalition opposition on promoting and defending human rights (25-point lead) and managing Australia’s response to climate change (21-point lead). Australians also said Labor would do a better job than the Coalition at responding to the Russia–Ukraine war (eight-point lead). By contrast, the Coalition was preferred on maintaining a capable defence force (six-point lead). Responses were more evenly divided on responding to the Israel–Hamas conflict (four-point lead for Labor with a greater proportion of undecideds than support for either of the parties), managing immigration (two-point lead for the Coalition), and managing the economy (two-point lead for Labor).