Security and defence
AUKUS: Nuclear-powered submarines
In the third year of the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the governments are proceeding with a plan for Australia to acquire at least three conventionally-armed Virginia class nuclear-powered submarines from the early 2030s. The plan also includes the design and construction of new SSN–AUKUS class submarines for delivery to the Royal Australian Navy from the early 2040s.
In Australia, public debate about this endeavour has grown, highlighting questions around its strategic merits, future US political commitment to the deal, industrial and workforce capacity, and the high costs involved. Proponents argue the submarines would improve Australia’s ability to defend itself and contribute to deterring major power conflict in the region.
At a broad level, majority public support for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines has held relatively firm. In 2024, almost two-thirds of Australians (65%) remain either ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ in favour — similar to last year, though five points below 2022 (70%), shortly after the deal was announced. One-third (32%) of Australians are ‘somewhat against’ or ‘strongly against’ acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.
While AUKUS continues to enjoy bipartisan political support in Australia, more Australians who lean towards the Liberal–National Coalition (81%) than those who lean towards the Labor Party (69%) are in favour of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines — a 12-point gap, narrowing from 21 points last year.
Security partnerships
Australia is seeking to broaden its security partnerships beyond its alliance with the United States. If given a choice to establish closer security relations with one other country, 45% of Australians would choose Japan from a list of six. There is a large gap to the next highest preference, India (18%), followed by Indonesia (14%), France (12%), and South Korea (5%).
Only 2% of Australians nominated the Philippines as their top preference for a closer security partnership, despite the two nations deepening their defence ties and staging their first joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea off the Philippine coast in November 2023.
Ukraine
Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, neither side has managed to achieve a decisive breakthrough and there is no end to the conflict in sight. Ongoing material international support for Ukraine, by no means assured, will be instrumental in Kyiv’s ability to continue to defend itself against Russian forces.
The United States, followed by Europe, is the largest provider of military and non-military aid to Ukraine. In late April 2024 (following conclusion of fieldwork for this Poll), after a months-long political impasse, the US Congress passed a bill authorising almost US$61 billion in assistance for Ukraine. Shortly after, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles announced a AU$100 million package of military assistance.
Australian public support for assisting Ukraine remains high. The vast majority of Australians (86%) continue to support ‘keeping strict sanctions on Russia’, steady from 2023. Eight in ten (80%) support ‘admitting Ukrainian refugees into Australia’, down four points from last year. Three-quarters (74%) support ‘providing military aid to Ukraine’, steady on last year.
Whereas the level of ‘strong support’ for each of these measures waned significantly between 2022 and 2023, over the past year, it has held steady for sanctions and military aid, and dropped a further six points for admitting refugees.
In answer to a new question in 2024, three-quarters of Australians (76%) support re-opening Australia’s embassy in Kyiv, which withdrew from Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in 2022 and remains closed due to security concerns. The majority of Western embassies that withdrew in 2022 have since returned to Kyiv. At time of writing, Australia’s Ambassador to Ukraine continues to operate from Warsaw.