Lowy Institute Poll 2024 Report

Global powers and world leaders

Trust in global powers

Despite political re-engagement between Australia and China over the past two years, public sentiment towards China remains very low. Only 17% of Australians say they trust China ‘somewhat’ or ‘a great deal’ to act responsibly in the world. This is steady from 2023 and a minor increase on 2022, when trust in China reached a record low (12%). However, it still stands in sharp contrast to just six years ago, when half (52%) of Australians trusted China.

On a list of eight countries, only Russia (8%) elicits less trust from Australians, a ranking it has held since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

For the fourth year in a row, Australians ranked Japan as the most trusted foreign country on the list (87%). France (81%) and the United Kingdom (80%) were the next most trusted countries, remaining in the top three.

In the lead-up to the 2024 US presidential election, levels of trust in the United States dropped a further five points from 2023 to 56%, continuing a decline that now puts it at nine points below 2022 (65%), in the second year of the Biden presidency.

India (56%) and Indonesia (52%) remain largely steady in the middle of the group.

Confidence in world leaders

Low levels of trust in China align with a lack of confidence in President Xi Jinping. Only 12% of Australians say they have ‘some’ or ‘a lot’ of confidence in President Xi ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’, steady from last year.

Australians continue to hold the least confidence in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (4%), closely followed by Russian President Vladimir Putin (7%), both steady from last year.

By contrast, Australians tend to have more confidence in the leaders of liberal democracies, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (65%), Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and French President Emmanuel Macron (both 61%) topping the list of 12 leaders.

However, confidence in the leaders of some democracies dropped markedly. Australians’ confidence in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dropped 12 points to 60%, after he topped the list of leaders last year. Confidence in UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fell seven points to 56%, aligning with the lowest rating for his predecessor Boris Johnson (55%) in 2020. US President Joe Biden dropped 13 points to 46%, a new low for him on this measure, but still 16 points above Australians’ peak confidence rating for former president Donald Trump (30% in 2020). Confidence in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi fell by seven points to 37%.

In March, as this Poll went to field, Indonesian President Joko Widodo was nearing the end of his term in office. Despite enjoying record high approval ratings at home, Australians’ confidence in President Widodo has remained consistently low, with only 33% expressing any level of confidence in him this year. A considerable proportion (18%) say they do not know who he is.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, included in this question for the first time, also received a lacklustre 41% confidence rating, with similarly significant numbers (19%) saying they do not know who he is.

Feelings thermometer

The ‘feelings thermometer’ measures Australians’ warmth towards other countries and territories on a scale of 0° (coldest feelings) to 100° (warmest feelings), with each score reflecting the mean of responses.

New Zealand has topped the feelings thermometer in every year it has been included, and 2024 is no exception with it registering 84°. Australians also continue to feel very warmly towards Japan (75°) and the United Kingdom (74°), and warmly towards Germany (69°), South Korea, and Taiwan (both at 64°) — all steady on their previous readings.

Southeast Asian and Pacific Islands countries occupied much of the upper-middle band of the thermometer, with Vietnam (63°), the Philippines (61°), Solomon Islands (60°), and Indonesia (56°) all stable on previous years.

While still warm, feelings towards the United States fell four degrees to 59°, its lowest reading in the 20-year history of this Poll, and down from an all-time high of 73° in 2015. Warmth towards Papua New Guinea also fell four degrees to 56°, while India slid four degrees to a lukewarm 54°.

Australians’ feelings towards China (34°) have remained consistently cold for the past four years, following a sharp cooling from 58° in 2018. This echoes the decline in trust in China and drop in confidence in its leader. Similarly, attitudes towards Russia plummeted following its invasion of Ukraine, and remain at a frosty 21°.

Feelings towards Iran dropped to 26°, eight degrees below its last rating in 2021. Australians reserved their coldest feelings for North Korea, which registered an icy 15°, steady from last year.

Australia’s best friend in Asia

Japan has held its position as ‘Australia’s best friend in Asia’ for the third year in a row, with 42% of Australians placing it at the top of a list of six countries. Singapore (16%) and Indonesia (15%) were the next most popular choices, largely unchanged on last year.

China (11%) gained four points, placing it fourth on the list, while India (10%) dropped six points to fifth place, after a spike in popularity last year. South Korea (3%) again received the least votes on this metric.