Preface
After three years of global turmoil, Australians have caught their breath.
The World Health Organization has declared that the Covid-19 emergency is over. The Australia–China relationship has begun to thaw out after several years in the freezer. Russia remains stubbornly committed to its brutal and illegal assault on Ukraine, but the initial shock of the invasion has subsided.
The 2023 Lowy Institute Poll reveals a sober optimism on the part of Australians looking out to the world. More Australians feel safe than last year. Their belief in democracy remains strong. They remain relatively hopeful about Australia’s economic outlook.
But there has been no return to factory settings. The shocks of recent years broke many underlying assumptions about the world.
In some cases, attitudes have changed dramatically. The Australia–China relationship is stabilising and the sharp decline in Australian perceptions of China has levelled out. However, the levels of trust, confidence and warmth towards China and President Xi Jinping remain strikingly low. Five years ago, more than half of Australians trusted China to act responsibly in the world. Today, that figure is only 15%.
A majority of Australians see the resumption of ministerial contact between the two countries as a positive development. However, most consider it likely that, in the future, China will pose a military threat to Australia.
It is hard to see trust in Russia recovering in the face of its ongoing aggression in Ukraine. Well into the second year of the conflict, as Ukraine prepares its counter-offensive, Australians remain overwhelmingly in favour of providing assistance to Kyiv.
One of the most consistent results in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll has been Australians’ support for the US alliance. Eight in ten Australians see the alliance as important for Australia’s security. They also believe that President Joe Biden has restored some measure of respect for the United States after the turbulence of the Trump years. On the other hand, three-quarters of Australians think the alliance makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia.
Anxieties about the prospect of war between the United States and China remain pronounced. In the event of such a conflict, more than half of Australians say Australia should remain neutral. But in a conflict over Taiwan, Australians are less ambivalent about acting in concert with the United States — even if this means sending military supplies to the government in Taipei or deploying the Royal Australian Navy to help prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan.
Against a backdrop of rising tensions in Asia, Australians broadly approve of the government’s plans to bolster the nation’s deterrent capabilities. Two-thirds still favour Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS partnership, although many think the price is too steep or have differing views on how the submarines will impact regional stability.
The world is presenting the new Labor government with many challenges. Yet, one year into his term in office, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoys widespread public confidence in his handling of foreign policy.
The Lowy Institute Poll, now in its nineteenth year, remains the indispensable guide to how Australians see the world and their place in it.
Dr Michael Fullilove AM
Executive Director
June 2023