Executive summary
Trust in global powers
The vast majority of Australians continue to trust Japan (85%), the United Kingdom (84%) and France (79%) ‘somewhat’ or ‘a great deal’ to act responsibly in the world. Russia (8%) and China (15%) are once again the least trusted global powers of those surveyed. Trust in the United States (61%) has declined slightly by four points compared to 2022, while trust in India (58%) and Indonesia (51%) remains stable from last year.
Confidence in world leaders
Australians have high levels of confidence in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, with 72% saying they have ‘some’ or ‘a lot’ of confidence in each leader. Echoing Australians’ declining trust in China since 2018, confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping remains low (11%). Russian President Vladimir Putin (7%) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (3%) remain the least trusted of the 11 leaders included in the 2023 Poll.
Safety and Threats to Australia’s interests
Feelings of safety rebounded by ten points from last year, with 63% of the population now saying they feel ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’. ‘Cyberattacks from other countries’ now tops the list of threats worrying Australians, with seven in ten (68%) identifying it as a ‘critical threat’ to Australia in the next ten years.
More than six in ten Australians (64%) see the prospect of a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan as a critical threat — almost twice as many as in 2020 (35%). But against a backdrop of thawing Australia–China relations, fewer Australians see China’s foreign policy as a critical threat, down six points from last year to 59%. Only three in ten Australians (30%) now say ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’ are a critical threat — a dramatic 46-point decrease from 2020.
Security and defence policy
Half of Australians say AUKUS, the trilateral partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, will make Australia safer (49%), and a slightly lower number say it will make the region safer (46%). Similarly, half say the Quad partnership between Australia, India, Japan and the United States will make Australia (51%) and the region (50%) safer.
Two-thirds of Australians (67%) are either ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ in favour of the decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS, a similar result to that in 2022 (70%). But Australians have mixed views about their impact: three in ten (28%) think the submarines will ‘deter military conflict and help ensure stability’ in the Indo-Pacific region, while two in ten (20%) think they will ‘increase the risk of military conflict and instability’. The remainder (52%) either say the submarines will make no difference or they are not sure of their impact.
Almost half (47%) do not think the submarine program is worth the estimated cost (reported as between $268 billion and $368 billion). When considering the broader federal budget, 41% of Australians would increase defence spending, a fall of ten points from 2022.
A majority of Australians (57%) say they favour allowing the United States to base military forces in Australia, down six points from last year. On defence strategy, four in ten (40%) say that ‘to keep Australia safe, we should invest more in military capabilities that protect Australia close to home’. A smaller minority (26%) say we ‘should invest more in military capabilities that deter potential enemies far from our shores’, with one-third (34%) unsure about either approach.
Assistance to Ukraine
In the second year of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Australians continue to show very high levels of support for assisting Ukraine. Almost nine in ten (87%) say they ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ support ‘keeping strict sanctions on Russia’. More than eight in ten (84%) support ‘admitting Ukrainian refugees into Australia’. Three-quarters (76%) support ‘providing military aid to Ukraine’. However, the number who ‘strongly support’ each of these measures has waned since 2022.
Global leadership
On the trajectories of US and Chinese power, six in ten Australians (61%) believe that in ten years, China will play ‘a more important and powerful role as a world leader’. More than one-quarter (28%) think China’s position will remain ‘about the same as now’. By comparison, close to half (45%) expect the role of the United States as a world leader to stay the same as it is now. Two in ten (22%) expect the United States will play a more important and powerful role in ten years.
United States
Eight in ten Australians (82%) see the alliance with the United States as ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security, down five points from a record high last year. However, three-quarters of Australians (74%) think the alliance makes it more likely Australia would be drawn into a war in Asia. A smaller majority (61%) think the alliance makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China.
Three-quarters of Australians (73%) think the United States is more respected in the world under President Joe Biden, whereas only one-quarter (24%) think the United States was more respected under President Donald Trump.
China
A majority of Australians (56%) see the resumption of contact between Australian and Chinese ministers as either ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ positive for Australia’s national interests. At the same time, a larger number of Australians see China as ‘more of a security threat’ (52%) than those who say it is ‘more of an economic partner’ (44%) to Australia. However, in 2023, the number who see China as more of a security threat dropped 11 points on last year, while the number who see China as more of an economic partner increased by the same amount.
Looking to the future, a strong majority of Australians (75%) think it ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ likely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, 30 points higher than in 2018 (45%). The vast majority of Australians (87%) are either ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about China potentially opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country.
Potential conflict
In the event of a military conflict between China and the United States, more than half (56%) say Australia should remain neutral, an increase of five points from 2022 (51%). Four in ten (42%) say Australia should support the United States, down four points since 2022.
However, when asked how Australia should respond if China invaded Taiwan, a strong majority of Australians (80%) say they would support ‘accepting Taiwanese refugees into Australia’. Similarly, three-quarters (76%) say they would support ‘Australia imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on China’, two-thirds (64%) would support ‘Australia sending arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government’, and six in ten (61%) say they would support ‘using the Australian Navy to help prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan’. The only option that was not supported by most Australians was ‘sending Australian military personnel to Taiwan to help defend it from China’ (42%).
Australia and the Pacific
Half of Australians (49%) think that Australia’s relations with Pacific Island countries are staying about the same. A quarter (26%) think they are improving, and 22% think relations are getting worse.
Australians remain overwhelmingly in favour of using aid to fund a range of objectives in Pacific Island countries. Almost all (92%) support providing aid for disaster relief. The vast majority of Australians favour providing aid ‘to help prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific’ (84%) as well as for long-term economic development (83%). Similarly, eight in ten (80%) support providing Covid-19 vaccines to Pacific Island countries, and 76% support providing climate-related aid.
Global economy and trade
Despite global economic headwinds, optimism about Australia’s economic performance in the next five years remains reasonably solid (62%), unchanged from 2022. A strong majority (70%) say that Australia should place a high priority on ensuring supply chains run through countries that are friendly towards Australia, even if it means higher prices. Only three in ten (29%) say the priority should be ‘keeping prices as low as possible, even if it means that supply chains run through countries that are unfriendly towards Australia’.
Democracy
Three-quarters of Australians (73%) continue to see democracy as preferable to any other kind of government, a result that remains at a record high. Younger Australians are now more likely to see democracy as preferable compared to five years ago, narrowing a long-running age gap on this issue.
Climate change
A majority of Australians (56%) continue to say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem’ about which ‘we should begin taking steps now, even if this involves significant costs’. Only three in ten (32%) say ‘the problem of global warming should be addressed, but its effects will be gradual, so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost’.
Indigenous Voice
Australians are split between those who think introducing an Indigenous Voice to parliament would improve Australia’s international reputation (47%) and those who think it would make no difference to Australia’s reputation (44%). Very few (8%) believe it would damage Australia’s reputation.
Immigration
Half of Australians (53%) say the number of immigrants allowed into Australia should be ‘around the same as pre-Covid levels’, up seven points on 2022. A quarter (26%) say immigration should be ‘lower than pre-Covid levels’, a fall of seven points from 2022, while 20% say the intake should be higher.
Australian government performance
Australians give the Albanese government its highest mark out of ten for ‘maintaining a strong alliance with the United States’ (7.1). It is also rated highly for ‘presenting a good image of Australia internationally’ (6.8). The government receives its lowest marks for ‘managing Australia’s approach to climate change’ (5.3) and ‘managing Australia’s economy’ (5.7).
Over the past 15 years, Australia has had three Labor and three Coalition prime ministers. This Poll asked Australians how they rated the foreign policy performance of each of these leaders. A large majority (83%) of Australians say Anthony Albanese is doing a ‘very good’ or ‘reasonable’ job handling foreign policy. Kevin Rudd (78%) and Julia Gillard (77%) were the next most highly ranked on this metric. A smaller majority (69%) rate Malcolm Turnbull’s performance on foreign policy favourably. Australians were least positive about Scott Morrison’s (46%) and Tony Abbott’s (50%) handling of foreign policy.
The 2023 Lowy Institute Poll reports the results of two nationally representative online and telephone surveys conducted by the Social Research Centre in March and April 2023. See 2023 Methodology.