Relations with superpowers: China and the United States
China
As Australia’s relationship with China has declined, public opinion towards China has fallen sharply. In recent years, Australians have increasingly viewed China’s economic growth as a negative, while they have historically been concerned about China’s human rights record and military.
Trust, warmth and confidence in China and China’s leader started to decline in 2017, and continue to remain at record lows in 2022. There is also increased concern about the potential for China to pose a military threat in the region and to Australia.
Indicates change in mode: see 2024 Methodology.
In 2022, a substantial number of Australians are concerned about China becoming a military threat to Australia. Setting a new record by some margin, three-quarters of Australians (75%) say it is very or somewhat likely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, an increase of 29 points since 2018.
China: economic partner or security threat
In your own view, is China more of an economic partner or more of a security* threat to Australia?
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In 2015, 2017 and 2018, the question asked if China was ‘more of a military threat’.
Indicates change in mode: see 2024 Methodology.
As well as a military threat, many Australians see China as a security threat. In 2022, two-thirds of Australians (63%) say China is ‘more of a security threat’ to Australia, while 33% say China is ‘more of an economic partner’ to Australia. Both of these figures have not changed since 2021.
The United States
The public has reported high levels of support for Australia’s alliance with the United States over the 18 years of the Lowy Institute Poll, despite fluctuating levels of trust in the United States and confidence in US leaders.
Australians increasingly see conflict in our region as a possibility, which likely adds to the importance placed upon the alliance with the United States But there are also some concerns about the implications of Australia’s relationship with the United States.
Indicates change in mode: see 2024 Methodology.
In 2022, the number of Australians who see the ANZUS alliance as important to their security has returned to record highs. Nine in ten Australians (87%) say the alliance is ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security. This marks a nine-point increase from 2021, and is equal to the highest levels of support expressed in 2012, during former President Barack Obama’s administration.
Indicates change in mode: see 2024 Methodology.
However, warmth towards and trust in the United States have not returned to the high levels that were recorded during the Obama years. More than three-quarters of Australians (77%) now agree that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’, an increase of eight points since 2019. However, a similar number (76%) also agree that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia were under threat. Two-thirds (64%) agree that ‘the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China’, an eight-point increase from 2019.
Military conflict between the United States and China
As Australians are increasingly concerned about potential conflict in the region, a bare majority (51%) say that Australia should remain neutral in the event of a military conflict between China and the United States. This figure has fallen six points since 2021. Almost half (46%) say Australia should support the United States in such a conflict, a five-point increase from last year. Only 1% say Australia should support China.
Polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in the United States in August 2022 found that in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a majority of Americans would support imposing diplomatic and economic sanctions on China (76%), accepting Taiwanese refugees into the United States (67%), sending additional arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government (65%), and using the US Navy to prevent Beijing from imposing a blockade against Taiwan (62%). Four in ten (40%) would support sending US troops to Taiwan’s defence.
As in 2021, there is a generational difference on this question. More than half the population aged over 45 (55%) say Australia should support the United States, while only 36% of Australians aged 18–44 agree with that approach. Younger Australians are more likely to say Australia should remain neutral, with six in ten Australians aged 18–44 (60%) choosing this position. Only 43% of Australians aged 45 and over prefer neutrality.