Lowy Institute Poll 2021 Report

Relations with superpowers – the United States and China

Australia’s alliance with the United States

Australians have reported strong support for Australia’s alliance with the United States over the 17 years of the Lowy Institute Poll, despite fluctuating levels of confidence in US leaders. Overall support for the alliance has remained steady between the final year of President Donald Trump’s administration and the first year of President Joe Biden’s administration. A clear majority (78%, steady since 2020) continue to say that the alliance is either ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security. The number who say the alliance is very important to Australia’s security has increased 4 points this year to 47% of the population.

By comparison, the low point of Australian support for the alliance was during of the George W Bush presidency in 2007, when 63% of Australians said the alliance was very or fairly important for Australia’s security. The 2021 result remains 9 points below the highest levels of support expressed in 2012, during former President Barack Obama’s administration.

This slight boost in support for the alliance in 2021 may in part reflect the far higher confidence Australians express in President Joe Biden than former President Donald Trump. More than three-quarters of Australians (76%, a slight increase of 3 points since 2019) say ‘Australians and Americans share many common values and ideals. A strong alliance is a natural extension of this’. The same number (75%) say ‘The United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia was under threat’, unchanged since 2019.

Fewer Australians this year (58%) agree that ‘Donald Trump has weakened Australia’s alliance with the United States’ (down 8 points since 2019). Fewer Australians also perceive the United States as a declining power compared with China than in the past. In 2021, only one-third (36%) say ‘the United States is in decline relative to China and so the alliance is of decreasing importance’, a view held by almost half the population (46%) in 2019.

However, there are stark generational differences on all of these questions about Australia’s alliance with the United States. Seven in ten Australians aged 18–29 (70%) say Donald Trump weakened the alliance. Half this group (50%) say the United States is in decline relative to China and the alliance is less important, 19 points higher than among Australians over 60 years of age.

By contrast, the oldest generation of Australians surveyed (60 years and over) overwhelmingly agree that Australia and the United States share common values and ideals (89%) and that the United States would defend Australia if under threat (84%). The youngest generation of Australians (18–29 year olds) are less likely to concur on both statements, with 61% and 62% agreeing respectively.

Views of China

The sharp decline in the Australia–China relationship in recent years has been clearly mirrored in Australian public opinion, as seen in successive Lowy Institute Polls. Trust, warmth and confidence in China and China’s leaders started to decline in 2017, and this year’s results present another record low for Australians’ views of China. In 2021, even views of China’s economic growth — historically a positive for Australians — have now shifted into negative territory.

For the first time, Australians see China’s economic growth as having a negative influence

The year of economic and political disputes between Australia and China has left its mark. In a conspicuous shift, the majority of Australians (63%) now see China as ‘more of a security threat to Australia’. This is a substantial 22-point increase from 2020. Only 34% say China is ‘more of an economic partner to Australia’, 21 points lower than in 2020. In 2018, 82% of Australians saw China as more of an economic partner, responding to a question worded slightly differently.¹

Almost all Australians (93%) see China’s military activities in our region as having a negative influence on their views of China, a 14-point increase from 2016. Only 5% say China’s military activities have a positive influence. This concern about military activities may have contributed to the large increase in the number of Australians who view ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ as a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests over the next ten years (52%, up 17 points).

When asked to assign responsibility for the tensions in the Australia–China relationship, the majority of Australians (56%) say ‘China is more to blame’ than Australia. One-third (38%) say that Australia and China are equally to blame. Almost none (4%) say ‘Australia is more to blame’, despite holding reservations about the government’s handling of the relationship. The majority of Australians (56%) see ‘Australia–China relations’ as a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests. And in further evidence of souring attitudes, eight in ten Australians (82%) responding to a separate Lowy Institute survey in November 2020 said that they were concerned about China’s influence on Australia’s political processes, a 19-point increase from 2018.

Views of China’s system of government have also deteriorated further: in 2021, 92% say ‘China’s system of government’ has a negative influence on their views of China, a 19-point increase from 2016. China’s early handling of the Covid-19 outbreak may have been a factor, with 68% of Australians saying in April 2020 that China’s handling of the Covid-19 outbreak had made them feel ‘less favourable’ towards China’s system of government.²

Even in relation to China’s strong economic growth story, Australian attitudes have shifted significantly in recent years. In 2021, less than half the population (47%) say China’s economic growth has a positive influence on their view of China, a steep 28-point fall since 2016.

These striking shifts in public sentiment on China are sometimes ascribed to negative reporting by the Australian media. According to a November 2020 survey, many Australians (61%) say Australian media reporting about China is ‘fair and balanced’. A quarter (26%) say that reporting is ‘too negative’, while 10% say it is ‘too positive’.

While Australian views of China have cooled overall in recent years, most Australians remain positive about Chinese people and China’s culture and history. Three-quarters of Australians (76%) say ‘Chinese people [they] have met’ have positively influenced their view of China (down 9 points since 2016: see Methodology on p. 45 for details of changes in mode).

Seven in ten Australians (68%) say China’s culture and history have a positive influence on their view of China, an 11-point decline from 2016.

Chinese investment in Australia has been unpopular for some time, but attitudes have hardened further in the past five years. In 2021, only one in five Australians (20%) say that Chinese investment has a positive influence on their view of China, a 17-point decline from 2016. While the majority of Australians oppose any entity controlled by a foreign government having a controlling stake in an Australian company, this is particularly clear in relation to the Chinese government (92% opposed) and the Hong Kong government (86% opposed).

Australians remain unimpressed by China’s environmental policies, despite its recent commitment to net-zero emissions by 2060.³ Only 17% of Australians say China’s environmental policies have a positive influence on their views of China, unchanged from 2016. Eight in ten Australians (82%) say China is doing ‘too little’ in its efforts to combat climate change.

Australians are divided as to whether to boycott the Beijing Olympics

The vast majority of Australians have also expressed concerns about China’s human rights record over the history of the Lowy Institute Poll. As debate about China’s hosting of the Winter Olympics in 2022 escalates, a bare majority (51%) say Australia should attend the Beijing Olympics. Less than half (45%) say Australia ‘should not attend because of China’s human rights record’.

Australia’s relationship with the superpowers

Past Lowy Institute polling shows Australians have become increasingly wary of military engagement in some parts of the world, and support for deploying military forces has been consistently low for hypothetical scenarios involving China.⁴ When asked about a military conflict between China and the United States, more than half the population (57%) say ‘Australia should remain neutral’. Four in ten Australians (41%) say ‘Australia should support the United States’ and 1% say ‘Australia should support China’. There is a stark divide between the youngest and oldest Australians on this question: only one in five (21%) Australians aged 18–29 say Australia should support the United States in the case of conflict, a view held by the majority (58%) of Australians aged over 60.

As well as a preference to remain neutral in the case of a conflict in the region, seven in ten Australians (72%) say it is possible for Australia to have good relations with the United States and China at the same time. This is a smaller number than in 2013 however, when 87% of the population thought Australia could maintain good relations with both powers at the same time.