Threats to Australia
Over the past 15 years, Lowy Institute polling has sought Australians’ views on a range of possible threats to ‘the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years’, including terrorism, the nuclear threat from unfriendly countries, immigration, fake news and China’s growing power.
For the first time in the history of the Poll, climate change topped the list of threats to Australia’s vital interests in 2019, alongside cyberattacks, international terrorism and North Korea’s nuclear program. The number of Australians saying climate change is a critical threat (64%) has increased by six points since last year (and 18 points since 2014). Younger Australians are more concerned about climate change: 83% of 18–29 year olds say that climate change is a critical threat compared with 59% of those aged over 30.
From 2006–2009, this question asked about ‘global warming’ rather than ‘climate change’. In 2020, this question asked about ‘novel coronavirus (Covid-19) and other potential epidemics’ rather than ‘the spread of infectious diseases internationally’. In 2021–2023, it asked about ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’.
The potential threat of cyberattacks has been a growing concern since 2014. The proportion of Australians who see cyberattacks as a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests has risen five points this year to 62%, an increase of 11 points since 2014. International terrorism (61%) and North Korea’s nuclear program (60%) continue to be of significant concern, although slightly more Australians saw these threats as critical in 2018. A majority (55%) see ‘China open[ing] a military base in a Pacific Island country’ as a critical threat. The prospect of a global economic downturn continues to cause concern, with 51% seeing it as a critical threat, a result unchanged from 2018.
Concern about foreign interference in Australian politics has increased, with 49% saying it is a critical threat, up eight points from 2018. A minority (43%) say ‘frequent changes in Australia’s political leadership’ is a critical threat.
Lower ranked are the threats posed by foreign investment in Australia (39% saying ‘critical threat’) and ‘large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming to Australia’ (36%, unchanged from 2018).
Along with climate change, many of these threats are perceived quite differently by younger Australians. Only 11% of 18–29-year-old Australians see large numbers of immigrants and refugees as a critical threat, compared with 42% of those aged over 30. Similarly, international terrorism is less of a concern for younger Australians, with only 42% of 18–29 year olds compared with 66% of those over 30 seeing it as a critical threat. The same generational difference exists for cyberattacks (47:66), North Korea’s nuclear program (41:65) and China opening a military base in the Pacific (36:60).