Lowy Institute Poll 2019 Report

China

Over the past 15 years of Lowy Institute polling, Australians have expressed a complex range of attitudes towards China. Australians’ views about China’s economy, culture and people have generally been positive. And discussion about China — Australia’s largest trading partner — has often focused on the economic benefits of the bilateral relationship. On the other hand, issues such as Chinese investment, China’s human rights record and its system of government elicit strongly negative views.

Australian sentiment towards China has been generally stable and on the warm side, with China registering 58° in the 2018 Lowy Institute ‘feelings thermometer’, a reading statistically equivalent to those recorded over the past five years. However, in 2019, public opinion appears to have shifted.

Australians’ trust in China has declined dramatically to 32% in 2019 (down 20 points from last year). And feelings towards our largest trading partner have cooled, down nine degrees to 49°, in the single largest fall in the 15 years of Lowy Institute polling.

Nearly three-quarters of Australians (74%) agree that ‘Australia is too economically dependent on China’, even though a majority (55%) agreed in 2018 that China was ‘the world’s leading economic power’.

An important factor in this cooling towards China may be the continuing debate about foreign influence and China’s alleged interference in Australian politics. In 2018, that debate appeared to have gained little traction in the broader population. However, almost half (49%) in 2019 say that foreign interference in Australian politics is ‘a critical threat’ to Australia’s vital interests, an increase of eight points from last year.

Other factors may include political disagreement about China’s signature infrastructure plan, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the militarisation of the South China Sea. More than three-quarters of the population agree that ‘Australia should do more to resist China’s military activities in our region, even if this affects our economic relationship’ (77%, an increase of 11 points since 2015) and believe that ‘China’s infrastructure investment projects across Asia are part of China’s plans for regional domination’ (79%). Only 44% say that China’s infrastructure investment projects are good for the region.

Last year, it was reported that China had approa­ched Vanuatu about building a permanent military presence in the South Pacific. A majority of Australians (55%) say that ‘if China opened a military base in a Pacific Island country’ this would be ‘a critical threat’ to Australia’s vital interests.

A majority (60%) would support the Australian military conducting freedom of navigation naval operations in the South China Sea and other disputed areas claimed by China. This is less support than recorded in response to a similar question in 2016 (74%) and 2017 (68%), when tensions in the South China Sea were a headline issue.

Australians are more hesitant about the use of Australian military forces in other potential conflicts with China. Only 43% of Australians are in favour of the Australian military becoming involved ‘if China invaded Taiwan and the US decided to intervene’. Almost two-thirds of Australians (62%) would not support the use of the Australian military ‘if China initiated a military conflict with one of its neighbours over disputed islands or territories’.

Scepticism about foreign investment from China persists. The proportion of Australians (68%) who say that the Australian government is ‘allowing too much investment from China’ has remained statistically equal to the high point (72%) in 2018. In the past, Lowy Institute polling has found most Australians are wary of foreign investment in agriculture, residential real estate and critical infrastructure such as ports and airports.

Australians’ cooler attitudes towards China may also be affected by increased attention on the human rights situation in China, and particularly in Xinjiang, since Xi Jinping took office in 2012. Only a quarter (27%) of Australians agree that ‘Australia is doing enough to pressure China to improve human rights’, a decrease of nine points since 2011.