Preface
Ten years ago, I was invited to deliver the ABC Boyer Lectures. I began my first lecture by recalling Dean Acheson’s memoir about his time as President Harry Truman’s secretary of state. Acheson belonged to the generation of American statesmen that created the post-war world. He called his memoir Present at the Creation.
In my lecture, I argued that we were ‘present at the destruction’ — the destruction of a world order that had served Australia’s interests well.
In 2025, Acheson’s creation is beset on all sides. This is a precarious moment, and Australians sense it. Feelings of safety and economic optimism have fallen to the lowest levels in two decades, equalling sentiment registered during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Australia’s key ally, the United States, has changed course since President Donald Trump took office in January. Most Australians dislike what they see. Only 36% now trust the United States to act responsibly, a 20-point drop since last year and the lowest level on record.
Yet despite the sharp decline in trust, most Australians (80%) still believe the Australia–US alliance is important to our security — one of the most consistent findings in the history of the Institute’s polling. A clear majority (63%) still believe that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if it were attacked.
Perhaps one explanation for this apparent disjunction is the ongoing distrust of Australia’s main trading partner, China, which many (69%) perceive as a future military threat. As if to illustrate that threat, just prior to the fieldwork for this Poll, a Chinese navy task force conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea and then circumnavigated Australia. Only one in five Australians say they trust China to act responsibly. In 2018, before Beijing’s campaign of attempted trade coercion, more than half of Australians trusted China.
How do Australians think we should respond to the changing world order?
Many believe we need to bolster our defence capabilities. Half the population say Australia should increase defence spending, while support for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS has held firm (67%). Half the adult population also say they would be willing to fight to defend Australia if they were physically capable of doing so, while only a quarter say they would not.
Australians continue to stand against aggression, backing Ukraine in the fourth year of its war against Russia’s illegal invasion. A strong majority (71%) also say they would support Australia’s participation in a potential European-led peacekeeping mission. Sentiment towards Russia and Vladimir Putin remains frosty. And as authoritarianism grows in some parts of the world, a record high number of Australians (74%) see democracy as the best form of government. Meanwhile, a solid majority (70%) believe social media has more of a negative impact than a positive impact on democracy.
Most want Australia to be more economically self-sufficient: 83% think Australia should make more goods domestically, even if they cost more. Still, Australians have historically been steadfast believers in free trade, and reject President Trump’s use of tariffs.
Australians lean towards cooperation. They feel most comfortable with fellow liberal democracies such as Japan and New Zealand, but remain circumspect towards two regional powers, India and Indonesia.
Urgency in addressing climate change has softened, as the cost of living bites at home. But Australians remain supportive of renewable energy and hosting a UN climate change conference in Australia.
Since this Poll went to the field, Australians have delivered a decisive election victory to incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. His government will need to chart the nation’s course through a worsening geopolitical storm.
The Lowy Institute Poll, now in its twenty-first year, illuminates the public mood at a remarkable moment in history.
Dr Michael Fullilove AM
Executive Director
June 2025