Preface
This is the twentieth edition of the annual Lowy Institute Poll.
When the Institute first published this survey in 2005, our ambition was twofold: to help understand how Australians see the world; and to give Australians an opportunity to have their say on Australia’s foreign policy.
The results of that first Lowy Institute Poll reflected a very different world from the one we live in today.
Then, there was a sense of optimism about China’s rise. In the aftermath of 9/11 and the Iraq invasion, Australians were equally worried by Islamist fundamentalism and US foreign policies. Most Australians felt safe, however, and while they were conscious of global threats, these largely appeared distant.
Over the past two decades, the world has changed, and Australian attitudes along with it.
In 2024, the Australia–China relationship has stabilised somewhat following several difficult years, but it has not rebounded. Australians’ trust towards China, while improving slightly, remains strikingly low. Threat perceptions remain high: seven in ten Australians consider it likely that China will pose a military threat to Australia in the future.
If Australians could vote in the US election, two-thirds would choose Joe Biden, and three in ten would choose Donald Trump. The great majority of Australians see the US alliance as important to Australia’s security — which is one of the most consistent results over two decades of Lowy Institute polling. Nearly two-thirds support Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. But looking to the future, many also fear the alliance could draw Australia into war.
Japan is held in high regard across a range of indicators, a reflection of shared values, interests, and strategic outlook. Australians are more reserved towards India and Indonesia, although their weight in global affairs continues to grow.
Cyberattacks are seen as the leading threat to Australia’s interests for the second year in a row, while just over half of Australians see more risk than opportunity in the rapid proliferation of artificial intelligence.
Potential war over Taiwan or in the South China Sea looms larger in Australians’ minds than the distant conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Support for Australian government assistance to Ukraine remains high, however, and three-quarters of Australians are in favour of reopening Australia’s embassy in Kyiv.
Climate change remains a clear and pressing concern for the majority of Australians. But with cost-of-living pressures rising, more Australians now prioritise ‘reducing household energy bills’ than ‘reducing carbon emissions’. Attitudes have darkened towards coal, lightened towards nuclear, and remain supportive of renewables.
Advanced economies are engaged in subsidy wars, and protectionism is on the rise. Yet Australians’ support for free trade remains higher than ever. At the same time, they are overwhelmingly in favour of subsidising renewable energy technologies.
Overall, more Australians say the Albanese government is doing a good job on foreign policy than those who say it is not.
Australia cannot afford to be a bystander in a rapidly changing world. Australia is a significant country, with regional and global interests. Australia must be a participant.
Two decades after it began, the Lowy Institute Poll remains the definitive guide to Australian attitudes to the world. I am proud that the Poll continues to serve the democratic function for which it was created.
Dr Michael Fullilove AM
Executive Director
June 2024