Executive summary
Trust in global powers
Only 5% of Australians say they trust Russia ‘somewhat’ or ‘a great deal’ to act responsibly in the world, a 21-point fall from 2021. One in ten (12%) trust China, a 40-point decrease since 2018. Around half trust India (56%) and Indonesia (51%). Trust in the United States is stable from last year at 65%, but remains 18 points below the levels of trust expressed towards the United States in 2009 and 2011 (83%). Most Australians trust France (82%), Japan (87%) and the United Kingdom (87%) to act responsibly in the world.
Confidence in world leaders
A small fraction of Australians (6%) say they have ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence in Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to do the right thing regarding world affairs, a ten-point decline since 2021. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un inspires confidence in 5% of Australians. Only 11% have confidence in China’s President Xi Jinping. A third of Australians (32%) have confidence in Indonesian President Joko Widodo, a six-point increase from 2021. Four in ten Australians (38%) have confidence in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Six in ten Australians have confidence in UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson (59%) and in US President Joe Biden (58%), though Biden’s result has declined 11 points since 2021. The Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida (65%), and French President Emmanuel Macron (67%) both elicit high levels of confidence. Most Australians (87%) express confidence in New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
Safety and Threats to Australia’s interests
The majority of Australians (53%) say they feel ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’, a 17-point drop from 2021. Seven in ten Australians (68%) say Russia’s foreign policy poses ‘a critical threat’ to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years, up 36 points since 2017. The majority of Australians (65%) see China’s foreign policy as a critical threat, up 29 points from 2017. A similar number (64%) say a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan poses a critical threat, a 12-point increase from 2021. Many Australians also see cyberattacks from other countries (64%), climate change (62%) and North Korea’s nuclear program (58%) as critical threats.
More than half (55%) say the rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world poses a critical threat, a 14-point increase since 2020. The same number (55%) say that a severe downturn in the global economy poses a critical threat, a five-point increase from 2021. Less than half (42%) see Covid-19 and other potential epidemics as a critical threat, down 34 points since 2020. Only a third of Australians (34%) see political instability in the United States as a critical threat.
A bare majority of Australians (51%) say they would be in favour of using the Australian military ‘if China invaded Taiwan and the United States decided to intervene’, an increase of eight points since 2019. Four in ten Australians (40%) are in favour of deploying the military ‘if Russia invaded one of its neighbours’, a nine-point increase from 2017.
AUKUS and the Quad
A slim majority of Australians (52%) say AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, will make Australia safer, while 22% say AUKUS will make no difference and 7% say the partnership will make Australia less safe. Around half (49%) say AUKUS will make the region safer, while 11% are unsure about AUKUS and 8% say they have never heard of AUKUS.
Half the population (51%) say Australia should increase defence spending, a 20-point increase since 2019. Seven in ten Australians (70%) are ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ in favour of Australia’s plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, while 28% say they are against the acquisition. A third (36%) say they are strongly or somewhat in favour of ‘Australia acquiring nuclear weapons in the future’, while 63% are either somewhat or strongly against the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
A slim majority of Australians say the Quad, a partnership between Australia, India, Japan and the United States, will make Australia (53%) and our region (52%) safer. One in five Australians say the Quad will make no difference to Australia (20%) or to the region (21%). Only a small proportion say the Quad will make Australia (4%) or the region (5%) less safe. One in ten Australians are unsure about the Quad’s impact on Australia (10%) and the region (11%), and 12% of Australians have never heard of the Quad.
Following the AUKUS agreement, around half of Australians (49%) say both countries are equally to blame for the tensions in the Australia–France relationship. A third (35%) say Australia is more to blame, and 12% say France is more to blame.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Almost all Australians (92%) say they are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat concerned’ about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a separate April 2022 survey. Most Australians (87%) also say they are concerned about China–Russia cooperation. Seven in ten Australians (72%) say they are very or somewhat concerned about India–Russia cooperation. The vast majority strongly or somewhat support ‘admitting Ukrainian refugees into Australia’ (90%), ‘keeping strict sanctions on Russia’ (89%) and ‘providing military aid to Ukraine’ (83%).
China and the United States
Three-quarters (75%) in 2022 say it is ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ likely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, an increase of 29 points since 2018. Six in ten (63%) say China is ‘more of a security threat’ to Australia, while 33% say China is ‘more of an economic partner’ to Australia.
Nine in ten Australians (87%) say the ANZUS alliance is ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security, a nine-point increase from 2021. Three-quarters (77%) agree that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’, up eight points from 2019. Two-thirds (64%) agree that ‘the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China’, an eight-point increase from 2019.
A bare majority (51%) say that Australia should remain neutral in the event of a military conflict between China and the United States, a six-point fall since 2021. Almost half (46%) say Australia should support the United States in such a conflict, a five-point increase from last year. Only 1% say that Australia should support China.
Democracy at home and abroad
In 2022, three-quarters of Australians (74%) say ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’, an increase of 12 points from 2018 and a record high in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll. One in five Australians (18%) say ‘in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable’. Only 7% say ‘for someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have’.
Economic outlook, globalisation and trade
Six in ten Australians (62%) say they are ‘very optimistic’ or ‘optimistic’ about Australia’s economic performance in the world over the next five years, a 17-point fall from 2021. Three-quarters of Australians (73%) say globalisation is ‘mostly good’ for Australia. The majority say free trade is good for their standard of living (80%, up five points from 2019), for the Australian economy (78%, a seven-point increase from 2019), for Australian companies (71%, a six-point increase from 2019) and for ‘creating jobs in Australia’ (66%, a five-point increase since 2019).
Covid-19 pandemic and immigration
Most Australians see New Zealand (92%), Singapore (84%) and Australia (80%) as having handled the pandemic ‘very well’ or ‘fairly well’. Less than half (45%) say China has handled Covid-19 well. A minority of Australians say the United Kingdom (39%, up 20 points from 2021) and the United States (25%, up 18 points from 2021) performed well during the pandemic.
Less than half (46%) say that the number of immigrants allowed into Australia should be ‘around the same as pre-Covid levels’. A third of Australians (33%) say immigration should be ‘lower than pre-Covid levels’, while 21% say ‘higher than pre-Covid levels’. Seven in ten Australians (68%) say ‘Australia’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation’, a 15-point increase from 2018. A third (31%) say ‘if Australia is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation’, down ten points since 2018.
Climate change and energy
Six in ten Australians (60%) say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem’ about which ‘we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs’. Three in ten (29%) say the ‘problem of global warming should be addressed, but its effects will be gradual, so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost’, while 10% say that ‘until we are sure that global warming is really a problem, we should not take any steps that would have economic costs’.
The vast majority of Australians support federal government subsidies for renewable energy technology (90%), committing to a more ambitious emissions target for 2030 (77%) and Australia hosting a United Nations Climate Conference (75%). More than half support reducing coal exports to other countries (65%), introducing an emissions trading scheme or carbon tax (64%) and banning new coal mines (63%). Increasing the use of gas (59%) and removing the ban on nuclear power (52%) also receive majority support. Only a third (33%) support subsiding new coal-fired power plants.
Foreign aid to the Pacific
Almost all Australians are in favour of providing aid to the Pacific for disaster relief (93%), Covid-19 vaccines (86%) and for long-term economic development (84%). Eight in ten (82%) favour providing aid to help prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific, while 88% are either ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about China potentially opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country. Three-quarters of Australians (75%) are in favour of providing aid to Pacific Islands states for climate change action.
Feelings thermometer
Russia sits at the bottom of the Lowy Institute ‘feelings thermometer’ at a very cool 19°, a 22-degree drop in a single year. Feelings towards China remain cool at 33°. Australians feel warmly towards regional partners including Indonesia (57°), Papua New Guinea (61°), South Korea (63°), Taiwan (64°) and Vietnam (64°). Views of the United States have warmed three degrees to 65°. Australians feel warmly towards Ukraine and France (both 69°). Feelings towards Japan (74°), the United Kingdom (77°) and Canada (80°) remain very warm. In 2022, New Zealand again leads the Lowy Institute feelings thermometer, receiving a very warm 86°.
The Lowy Institute Poll reports the results of a nationally representative online and telephone survey conducted by the Social Research Centre (SRC) between 15 and 28 March 2022, with a sample size of 2006 Australian adults. On a simple random sample of 2006 responses, the margin of error is 2.2%. The design effect for this survey is estimated at 1.77. See 2022 Methodology.