Lowy Institute Poll 2022 Report

Australian foreign policy and foreign aid

Budget priorities

At a time when Australia has made substantial commitments in defence spending, a slim majority of Australians (51%) say defence spending should be increased. This marks a sizeable 20-point increase since 2019 in the proportion of Australians who want to increase defence expenditure.

Nonetheless, Australians continue to prioritise domestic spending over foreign policy issues when considering the federal budget. A large majority of Australians would increase spending in health (83%) and education (69%) if they were making up the budget for the federal government. More than half (56%) say spending on social welfare should be increased, up nine points since 2019.

Australians are divided when it comes to border protection, with 39% saying Australia should increase spending, a seven-point lift since 2019. However, more Australians (44%) say spending on border protection should be kept at about the current level.

Foreign aid has not historically been popular with the Australian public. In 2022, cuts to the aid budget have become less popular. Four in ten (42%) say spending on foreign aid should be kept around current levels, an increase of six points since 2019. A third (34%) continue to say that foreign aid spending should be decreased, representing a 13-point fall since 2019. Around a quarter of Australians (24%) say Australia should increase spending on foreign aid, an increase of seven points since 2019.

Foreign aid to the Pacific

While many Australians have been wary of foreign aid in the past, in 2022, Australians are overwhelmingly in favour of Australia providing foreign aid to Pacific Islands states. Almost all Australians (93%) are in favour of providing aid for disaster relief. The provision of aid for Covid-19 vaccines also receives high levels of support, with 86% of Australians saying they are in favour. This aligns with attitudes in 2021, where 83% of Australians said Australia should help Pacific countries to pay for Covid-19 vaccines.

There is also strong support for Australia to play a role in building strong economies in the Pacific. Eight in ten Australians (84%) favour providing aid to the Pacific for long-term economic development, and 82% favour providing aid ‘to help prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific’. In a different question in 2019, 73% said Australia should try to prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific.

Three-quarters of Australians (75%) are in favour of providing aid to Pacific Island states for climate change action. The same number (75%) support Australia hosting a UN Climate Conference, which has been floated as a proposal that could involve Australia co-hosting with Pacific Islands nations.

Potential Chinese military base in the Pacific

The Australian public share the government’s concerns about the potential for a Chinese military base in the Pacific. In a nationwide poll in April 2022, 88% of Australians say they are either ‘very‘ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about ‘China potentially opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country’. A security agreement between Solomon Islands and China was signed in April during the fieldwork for this poll, and media had also reported on a leaked draft security agreement in late March, prior to fieldwork. In a different question in 2019, a smaller majority of Australians (55%) said China opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country would pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years.

Foreign policy priorities

The public hold mixed views on the question of which partners, regions and forums should be the highest priority for Australia’s foreign policy. Four in ten Australians (43%) say that ‘focusing on Australia’s region, including Asia and the Pacific’ should be the highest priority for the federal government’s foreign policy. A third (33%) prioritise a globalist approach, saying that the government’s highest priority should be ‘focusing on global cooperation through multilateral institutions, including the United Nations’. Only one in five (20%) say Australia’s focus should be on ‘cooperation with Western countries and traditional partners, including the United States’.