Lowy Institute Poll 2022

Global powers and world leaders

Trust in global powers

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Australian views of Russia have plummeted. Only 5% of Australians say they trust Russia ‘somewhat’ or ‘a great deal’ to act responsibly in the world. This represents a 21-point fall from 2021, and marks Russia displacing China as the least trusted country for Australians.

Most Australians continue to hold very low levels of trust in China, with 12% saying they trust China somewhat or a great deal, a 40-point decrease since 2018. A bare majority of Australians (51%) trust Indonesia, which is steady from 2021. Trust in India has declined somewhat, with 56% saying they trust India to act responsibly in the world, a five-point fall in the past year.

Trust in the United States has rebounded from its historic low levels in 2019 and 2020. Two-thirds of Australians (65%) trust the United States to act responsibly. This result is stable from 2021, but remains 18 points below the levels of trust expressed towards the United States in 2009 and 2011 (83%).

Japan and the United Kingdom rank at the top of the list of countries in 2022, with 87% of Australians saying they trust Japan and the United Kingdom to act responsibly in the world. Despite recent tensions in Australia’s relationship with France following the AUKUS announcement, eight in ten Australians (82%) trust France to act responsibly in the world. This remains steady from 2018, the last time that France was included in this list.

Confidence in world leaders

The dramatic decline in trust in Russia corresponds with many Australians losing confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin. Only 6% of Australians say they have ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence in Putin to do the right thing regarding world affairs, which marks a ten-point decline since 2021. This places him at the same level as North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, who also inspires confidence in only 5% of Australians.

Only 11% of Australians say they have a lot or some confidence in President Xi Jinping to do the right thing regarding world affairs. This figure has halved since 2020 (22%) and has fallen by 32 points since 2018 (43%).

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tops the list of global leaders again, with 87% expressing confidence in her (though this has fallen four points from 2021). This aligns with New Zealand’s retention of its traditional place at the top of the annual ‘feelings thermometer’, ranking again as the country about which Australians feel most warmly.

Despite the bilateral tensions between Australia and France, the majority of Australians (67%) express confidence in French President Emmanuel Macron. Australians also hold high levels of confidence in Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with 65% saying they have confidence in him. Six in ten Australians (59%) have confidence in Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, which is unchanged from 2021.

While trust and warmth towards the United States have increased in 2022, fewer Australians express confidence in US President Joe Biden than in 2021. Six in ten Australians (58%) say they have some or a lot of confidence in President Biden, an 11-point decrease from his inauguration year of 2021. This remains 28 points above the confidence expressed in former President Donald Trump in 2020 (30%).

Most Australians continue to hold little confidence in key regional leaders. Four in ten Australians (38%) have confidence in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which has not changed in the past year. A third of Australians (32%) have confidence in Indonesian President Joko Widodo, a six-point increase from 2021.

Australia’s best friends

When thinking about Australia’s best friend in the world, the majority of Australians (57%) agree that it is New Zealand — a view that has been held firmly since 2017, but that represents an increase of 25 points since the question was first posed in 2014. The United States ranks second as Australia’s best friend, with 26%, an increase of six points since 2019. The United Kingdom comes in third place at 13%. Only 1% say China is Australia’s best friend in the world, an eight-point decline since 2014.

Australians are increasingly likely to name Japan as their best friend in Asia, while the number who see China as a best friend in the region has declined dramatically. Four in ten Australians (43%) say Japan is Australia’s best friend in Asia, an increase of 18 points since 2016. One in five (21%) name Singapore as Australia’s best friend in Asia, an increase of nine points since 2016, and 15% choose Indonesia. The remaining countries receive results in the single digits, with 7% saying India is Australia’s best friend in Asia, and 4% naming South Korea. Only 6% of Australians say China is Australia’s best friend in Asia, a decline of 24 points since 2016.

Safety and threats to Australia’s interests

Feelings of safety

Australians’ sense of safety has been up and down in recent years as people have reacted to the course of the pandemic and to global uncertainty. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and instability closer to home also appear to be having an effect on public opinion, with the survey fielded in March, soon after the war in Ukraine started. In 2022, a bare majority of Australians (53%) say they feel ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’, a 17-point drop from 2021 (70%). This is only marginally higher than the record low of Australians feeling safe in 2020, during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. This year’s result is a striking 39 points below the high point of feelings of safety in 2008 and 2010 (92%).

Threats to Australia’s vital interests

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had a clear impact on threat perceptions for many Australians. Russia’s foreign policy tops the list of threats in 2022, with 68% of Australians saying Russia’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years. This marks a striking 36-point increase since 2017 (32%).

At the same time, Australians are also concerned about China and the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait. More than six in ten Australians (65%) say China’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a 29-point increase from 2017 (36%). Concern about military conflict between the United States and China — the world’s two superpowers — has been on an upward trajectory in Australia. In 2022, 64% of Australians say ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ poses a critical threat, a 12-point increase from 2021 (52%) and 29 points higher than in 2020 (35%).

While anxiety about Russia and China has overtaken many threats, Australians continue to express a high level of concern over other non-traditional security threats. Two-thirds of the population (64%) say ‘cyberattacks from other countries’ pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests. A similar number of Australians (62%) say climate change poses a critical threat, steady from last year.

By contrast, Australians’ concern about ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’ continues on a downward trajectory. In 2022, only 42% say Covid-19 and other potential epidemics pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years. This marks a dramatic 17-point fall from 2021 (59%), and is 34 points below the 2020 result (76%) at the outset of the pandemic.

As North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear weapons capabilities, the majority of Australians (58%) consider North Korea’s nuclear program to be a critical threat. A smaller proportion of Australians (48%) view international terrorism as a critical threat.

At a time of record levels of support for democracy, Australians are increasingly concerned about rising authoritarianism. In 2022, a majority (55%) say ‘the rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a substantial 14-point increase since 2020 (41%). However, concern about ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ has stabilised, with 49% saying foreign interference poses a critical threat.

The Australian public appear to be increasingly concerned about the economy, with 55% saying ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s interests, which has risen five points since 2021 (50%).

Only a third of Australians (34%) regard ‘political instability in the United States’ as a critical threat. However, a majority (56%) say political instability in Australia’s treaty ally poses ‘an important but not critical’ threat.

Foreign influence in Australia’s political processes

Many Australians continue to express concern about foreign influence on the country’s political processes. Eight in ten Australians (86%) say they are concerned about China’s influence on Australia’s political processes, a four-point increase from 2020, and 23 points higher than the level of concern expressed in 2018. Fewer Australians, though still a majority (54%), express concern about the influence of the United States on Australia’s political processes, a seven-point decline since 2020.

Security and defence policy

AUKUS and the Quad

On 16 September 2021, the leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the creation of a trilateral security partnership called AUKUS. A slim majority of Australians (52%) say AUKUS will make Australia safer. Around one in five (22%) say AUKUS will make no difference to Australia’s safety, and 7% say the partnership will make Australia less safe. There are partisan differences to these responses: 70% of Australians who lean towards the Liberal and National parties say AUKUS will make Australia safer, a view shared by only 47% of Australians who lean towards the Labor Party and 44% who lean towards the Greens.

Australians appear to see the implications of AUKUS in the region in a similar light. Around half (49%) say AUKUS will make the region more safe, 24% say the partnership will make no difference, and 8% say it will make the region less safe. A minority of Australians (11%) say they are not sure about AUKUS, and a similar proportion (8%) say they have never heard of AUKUS.

In 2021, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States convened in person as the Quad grouping. A slim majority of Australians say the Quad will make Australia (53%) and our region (52%) safer. One in five Australians say the Quad will make no difference to Australia (20%) or to the region (21%). Only a small proportion of Australians say the Quad will make Australia (4%) or the region (5%) less safe. One in ten Australians are unsure about the Quad’s impact on Australia (10%) and the region (11%), and 12% of Australians have never heard of the Quad. The Quad Leaders’ Tokyo Summit took place in May 2022, after the fieldwork for this poll had been completed.

Nuclear-powered submarines and nuclear weapons

The first announcement under AUKUS was Australia’s plan to acquire at least eight nuclear-powered submarines for operation by the Royal Australian Navy. Seven in ten Australians (70%) are strongly or somewhat in favour of this decision, while 28% say they are against the acquisition. This comes at a time when the number of Australians who want defence spending to be increased has jumped 20 points since 2019 to 51%.

The AUKUS initiative was announced by the former Coalition government. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines receives strong support from Australians who lean towards the Liberal and National parties (87%), while 65% of Australians who lean towards the Labor Party are in favour of the decision. Only 42% of Australians who lean towards the Greens are in favour of the acquisition.

In 2022, 36% of Australians are strongly or somewhat in favour of ‘Australia acquiring nuclear weapons in the future’, while 63% are either somewhat or strongly against the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

In the 2010 Lowy Institute Poll, responding to a different question, only 16% of Australians said they would support acquiring nuclear weapons ‘if some of Australia’s near neighbours were to begin to develop nuclear weapons’.

Foreign military in Australia

As the United States is committing to send more platforms to Australia, 63% of Australians are either strongly or somewhat in favour of allowing the United States ‘to base military forces here in Australia’. This is an increase of eight points since 2011, when the former Prime Minister Julia Gillard and President Barack Obama announced the first rotation of US troops through Darwin. Even more Australians (67%) are in favour of the United Kingdom basing military forces in Australia.

Australia–France relations

The announcement of the AUKUS partnership saw Australia cancel plans to acquire submarines from the French contractor Naval Group. This led to tensions in the bilateral relationship between Australia and France. Around half of Australians (49%) say both countries are equally to blame for the tensions in the Australia–France relationship. A third (35%) say Australia is more to blame, and 12% say France is more to blame. Australians also continue to hold high levels of trust in France and confidence in French President Macron.

Use of Australian military forces

As Australians increasingly express concern about a potential conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, a slim majority of Australians (51%) would favour using the Australian military ‘if China invaded Taiwan and the United States decided to intervene’. This marks an eight-point increase since the question was last asked in 2019.

Four in ten Australians (40%) say Australia should deploy its military ‘if Russia invaded one of its neighbours’. This is nine points higher than in 2017.

Eight in ten (79%) support using the military ‘to stop a government from committing genocide and killing large numbers of its own people’. Three-quarters of Australians (75%) support using Australia’s military ‘to restore law and order in a Pacific nation’.

As in previous years, the majority of Australians (60%) support the Australian military being used ‘to conduct freedom of navigation naval operations in the South China Sea and other disputed areas claimed by China’.

However, the willingness of Australians to support deployment of the military to the Middle East has declined in recent years. Four in ten Australians (41%) say the Australian military should be used ‘to fight against violent extremist groups in the Middle East’, a nine-point decline from 2019 and 20 points lower than the level of support in 2017.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Concern about Russian foreign policy

Australians have watched Russia’s invasion of Ukraine closely, and express very high levels of concern about the war. In a separate April 2022 survey, almost all Australians (92%) say they are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat concerned’ about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Of this number, a sizeable 69% say they are ‘very concerned’ by the invasion.

In February 2022, the leaders of Russia and China held a high-level summit, prior to Russia invading Ukraine. Most Australians (87%) say they are concerned about China–Russia cooperation, with a majority (56%) saying they are ‘very concerned’ about the relationship between the two countries.

Looking at the relationship between Russia and India, seven in ten Australians (72%) say they are very or somewhat concerned about India–Russia cooperation. Only 28% of Australians say they are ‘very concerned’ by this partnership.

These high levels of concern align with Australian reactions to Russia across the entire 2022 Lowy Institute Poll. This year, 68% of Australians say Russia’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to Australia’s interests, putting Russia at the top of the list of threats. This represents a remarkable 36-point jump since 2017. At the same time, only 6% of Australians express confidence in Russia’s President Putin, and 5% trust Russia to act responsibly in the world.

Russia also sits at the bottom of the Lowy Institute ‘feelings thermometer’ for the first time, registering an icy 19°, a 22-degree drop in a single year. By contrast, Ukraine receives a very warm reading of 69°, 18 degrees higher than the last time it featured on the thermometer in 2015.

Australia’s response to the war in Ukraine

Australians are broadly supportive of the policies that the Australian government has put in place following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nine in ten Australians (90%) say they strongly or somewhat support ‘admitting Ukrainian refugees into Australia’. The same proportion of Australians (89%) support ‘keeping strict sanctions on Russia’. A large majority of Australians (83%) also support Australia ‘providing military aid to Ukraine’.

Relations with superpowers: China and the United States

China

As Australia’s relationship with China has declined, public opinion towards China has fallen sharply. In recent years, Australians have increasingly viewed China’s economic growth as a negative, while they have historically been concerned about China’s human rights record and military.

Trust, warmth and confidence in China and China’s leader started to decline in 2017, and continue to remain at record lows in 2022. There is also increased concern about the potential for China to pose a military threat in the region and to Australia.

In 2022, a substantial number of Australians are concerned about China becoming a military threat to Australia. Setting a new record by some margin, three-quarters of Australians (75%) say it is very or somewhat likely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, an increase of 29 points since 2018.

As well as a military threat, many Australians see China as a security threat. In 2022, two-thirds of Australians (63%) say China is ‘more of a security threat’ to Australia, while 33% say China is ‘more of an economic partner’ to Australia. Both of these figures have not changed since 2021.

The United States

The public has reported high levels of support for Australia’s alliance with the United States over the 18 years of the Lowy Institute Poll, despite fluctuating levels of trust in the United States and confidence in US leaders.

Australians increasingly see conflict in our region as a possibility, which likely adds to the importance placed upon the alliance with the United States But there are also some concerns about the implications of Australia’s relationship with the United States.

In 2022, the number of Australians who see the ANZUS alliance as important to their security has returned to record highs. Nine in ten Australians (87%) say the alliance is ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security. This marks a nine-point increase from 2021, and is equal to the highest levels of support expressed in 2012, during former President Barack Obama’s administration.

However, warmth towards and trust in the United States have not returned to the high levels that were recorded during the Obama years. More than three-quarters of Australians (77%) now agree that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’, an increase of eight points since 2019. However, a similar number (76%) also agree that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia were under threat. Two-thirds (64%) agree that ‘the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China’, an eight-point increase from 2019.

Military conflict between the United States and China

As Australians are increasingly concerned about potential conflict in the region, a bare majority (51%) say that Australia should remain neutral in the event of a military conflict between China and the United States. This figure has fallen six points since 2021. Almost half (46%) say Australia should support the United States in such a conflict, a five-point increase from last year. Only 1% say Australia should support China.

As in 2021, there is a generational difference on this question. More than half the population aged over 45 (55%) say Australia should support the United States, while only 36% of Australians aged 18–44 agree with that approach. Younger Australians are more likely to say Australia should remain neutral, with six in ten Australians aged 18–44 (60%) choosing this position. Only 43% of Australians aged 45 and over prefer neutrality.

Democracy at home and abroad

Democracies around the world

At a time when Australian leaders are increasingly discussing the importance of liberal democracies, Australians are more likely than ever to be aware of other democracies in the region. There have been substantial increases in the number of Australians who agree that Taiwan, India, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea are democracies. At the same time, the number of Australians who agree that Hong Kong and China are democracies has declined.

Australians continue to see traditional partners as democracies. The vast majority of Australians (92%) agree that the United Kingdom is a democracy. The percentage of Australians who see the United States as a democracy has increased six points from 2020 to 87%. More Australians in 2022 also see Japan as a democracy (84%), an increase of five points from 2020. More Australians also now see Japan as Australia’s best friend in Asia.

In line with Australians’ increasing concerns about a conflict over Taiwan, seven in ten (68%) now agree that Taiwan is a democracy, an increase of 16 points from 2020. While trust in India has declined in the past year, seven in ten Australians (68%) see India as a democracy, up 11 points from 2020. Six in ten Australians (63%) also say Papua New Guinea is a democracy, a ten-point increase from 2020.

The Lowy Institute Poll has surveyed Australians on their views about Indonesia for 18 years, and their responses have started to demonstrate growing awareness about our largest neighbour. Lowy Institute polling has consistently shown that most Australians do not view Indonesia as a democracy. In 2022, the level of awareness about Indonesia as a democracy has reached a new record high, with 48% agreeing Indonesia is a democracy, a nine-point increase from 2020.

After a year in which media groups have been shut down and elections limited, fewer Australians (28%) see Hong Kong as a democracy, a decline of nine points since 2020. Only 7% of Australians agree that China is a democracy, a three-point fall from 2020.

Attitudes to democracy

In 2022, Australians’ preference for democracy has reached a record high. Three-quarters of Australians (74%) say ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’, an increase of nine points from 2019. One in five (18%) say that ‘in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable’. In an election year in Australia, only 7% say ‘for someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have’, the lowest level in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll.

The gap between older and younger Australians on the importance of democracy — prominent in previous Lowy Institute polling — appears to have almost disappeared. In 2022, seven in ten Australians aged 18–29 (70%) express a preference for democracy, compared with 74% of Australians aged over 30. In previous years, this gap has been as large as 28 points.

Economic outlook, globalisation and trade

Economic optimism

Along with increased concerns about safety and security, Australians have downgraded their view of Australia’s economic prospects. In 2022, six in ten Australians (62%) say they are ‘very optimistic’ or ‘optimistic’ about Australia’s economic performance in the world over the next five years. This represents a 17-point fall from 2021, but remains ten points ahead of the record low in economic optimism experienced by Australians in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 at 52%.

Levels of optimism about the economy in the Australian public have often mirrored Australian perceptions of the global economy. In 2022, the majority of Australians (55%) say ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s interests, which has risen five points since 2021, but remains 16 points below the record high of 71% in 2020.

Globalisation

Australians have generally rejected the global trend towards protectionist and anti-globalisation sentiments experienced in other countries over the past decade. This continues in 2022, despite the ongoing pandemic and increases in the cost of living in Australia. Seven in ten Australians (73%) continue to say globalisation is mostly good for Australia, a marginal three-point increase from 2020. This result remains six points below 2009, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, where 79% of Australians said globalisation was mostly good.

Only a small gap exists between urban and regional residents on this question. Three-quarters of Australians who live in urban areas (75%) say globalisation is mostly good for Australia, whereas this view is held by 69% of Australians who live in regional or rural areas.

Free trade

Support for free trade continues to be on an upward trajectory in Australia. Eight in ten Australians (80%) say free trade is good for their standard of living, a five-point increase from 2019. More than seven in ten Australians say free trade is good for the Australian economy (78%, a seven-point increase from 2019) and for Australian companies (71%, a six-point increase from 2019). Two-thirds of Australians (66%) also say that free trade is good for ‘creating jobs in Australia’, a five-point increase since 2019.

Covid-19 pandemic and immigration

Covid-19 handling

Australians are now far less likely to see Covid-19 as a threat to Australia’s interests than in previous years. Public attitudes towards various countries’ approaches to the pandemic have also shifted. Australians are overwhelmingly positive about New Zealand’s handling of the pandemic, with 92% saying they have handled it ‘very well’ or ‘fairly well’. Most Australians (84%) say Singapore has also handled the pandemic well.

Eight in ten Australians (80%) continue to say that Australia has handled the pandemic well, though this is a 15-point decline from 2021. The strength of that sentiment has also shifted substantially, with only 24% of Australians saying that Australia has handled the pandemic ‘very well’ in 2022, compared to 65% in 2021.

Australians have mixed views of China’s handling of the pandemic, with 45% saying China has handled Covid-19 well and 54% saying it has been handled badly. The number of Australians who say China has handled Covid-19 well is unchanged since 2021, but is 14 points higher than Australians’ initial response to China’s handling of Covid-19 in 2020. The 2022 survey was fielded prior to the recent lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities in China.

In previous polling, Australians have had a very poor view of how the United States and the United Kingdom have handled the pandemic. This has improved in 2022, from a low base. Four in ten (39%) say the United Kingdom has handled the pandemic well, an increase of 20 points from 2021. The United States continues to sit at the bottom of this list of countries, with 25% saying the United States has done well, an 18-point improvement since last year.

Immigration and openness

Following two years of closed borders during the pandemic, Australians appear to be shifting towards more openness and immigration. Seven in ten Australians (68%) say ‘Australia’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation’, a 15-point increase from 2018. Fewer Australians (31%) now say ‘if Australia is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation’, a ten-point decline over the past four years.

There is a significant difference across generations on this question. Eight in ten Australians aged 18–44 (79%) see openness as essential to Australia’s identity, while this is a view held by 58% of Australians aged over 45.

Post-pandemic immigration

The number of Australians calling for reduced immigration also appears to have declined over the course of the pandemic. When asked about restarting Australia’s immigration program now that borders have reopened, 46% say that the number of immigrants allowed into Australia should be ‘around the same as pre-Covid levels’. A third of Australians (33%) say immigration should be ‘lower than pre-Covid levels’, and 21% say ‘higher than pre-Covid levels’. In 2019, prior to the pandemic, in response to a different question, 47% of Australians said immigration levels were ‘too high’, while 40% said the rate of immigration was about right.

Climate change and energy

Global warming

The majority of Australians continue to express concern about climate change in 2022. Six in ten Australians (60%) say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem’ about which ‘we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs’. This is unchanged from 2021, and remains eight points below the highest level of concern expressed in 2006 (68%). Three in ten Australians (29%) say the ‘problem of global warming should be addressed, but its effects will be gradual, so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost’, while 10% say that ‘until we are sure that global warming is really a problem, we should not take any steps that would have economic costs’.

The number of Australians (62%) who say climate change poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years has also remained stable since 2021. Three-quarters of Australians (75%) support providing aid to Pacific Island states to take action on climate change.

Potential federal government policies on climate change

Looking at a range of possible federal government policies, nine in ten Australians (90%) say they would support the federal government ‘providing subsidies for the development of renewable energy technology’, which is unchanged from 2021.

Eight in ten Australians (77%) support Australia ‘committing to a more ambitious emissions target for 2030’. Three-quarters (75%) say they also support Australia hosting a United Nations Climate Conference. The Labor government said during the election campaign that it would bid to host a COP in partnership with other Pacific nations if it formed government.

A sizeable majority of Australians (64%) support introducing an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax. These views have shifted significantly in the past six years. In response to a different question in 2016, only 40% said they would prefer the government to introduce an emissions trading scheme or price on carbon.

In recent years, Australian views of coal exports and coal mines have shifted. Six in ten Australians (65%) say they would support reducing Australian coal exports to other countries. In 2016, a majority (66%) said Australia should continue to export coal, in response to a different question.

Six in ten Australians (63%) support introducing a ban on new coal mines opening in Australia, unchanged from 2021. Urban residents are more likely to support a ban on new coal mines, with 66% of Australians in urban areas supporting such a ban, compared to 57% of Australians living in regional and rural areas. In 2022, a third of Australians (33%) say they support the federal government providing subsidies for building new coal-fired power plants.

On a number of these policies, there is a large gap between support from younger and older Australians. For example, 70% of Australians aged 18–44 support banning new coal mines, compared to 57% of Australians aged over 45. Similarly, 71% of respondents aged 18–44 support imposing a carbon tax or emissions trading scheme, compared to 57% of Australians aged over 45.

The majority of Australians (59%) continue to be in favour of ‘increasing the use of gas for Australia’s energy generation’.

Australians are split over the question of nuclear power, which has been prohibited in Australia since 1998. A slim majority (52%) would support removing the existing ban on nuclear power, a five-point increase from 2021. Almost half (45%) would oppose this decision, which represents a six-point decline in the past year.

Australian foreign policy and foreign aid

Budget priorities

At a time when Australia has made substantial commitments in defence spending, a slim majority of Australians (51%) say defence spending should be increased. This marks a sizeable 20-point increase since 2019 in the proportion of Australians who want to increase defence expenditure.

Nonetheless, Australians continue to prioritise domestic spending over foreign policy issues when considering the federal budget. A large majority of Australians would increase spending in health (83%) and education (69%) if they were making up the budget for the federal government. More than half (56%) say spending on social welfare should be increased, up nine points since 2019.

Australians are divided when it comes to border protection, with 39% saying Australia should increase spending, a seven-point lift since 2019. However, more Australians (44%) say spending on border protection should be kept at about the current level.

Foreign aid has not historically been popular with the Australian public. In 2022, cuts to the aid budget have become less popular. Four in ten (42%) say spending on foreign aid should be kept around current levels, an increase of six points since 2019. A third (34%) continue to say that foreign aid spending should be decreased, representing a 13-point fall since 2019. Around a quarter of Australians (24%) say Australia should increase spending on foreign aid, an increase of seven points since 2019.

Foreign aid to the Pacific

While many Australians have been wary of foreign aid in the past, in 2022, Australians are overwhelmingly in favour of Australia providing foreign aid to Pacific Island states. Almost all Australians (93%) are in favour of providing aid for disaster relief. The provision of aid for Covid-19 vaccines also receives high levels of support, with 86% of Australians saying they are in favour. This aligns with attitudes in 2021, where 83% of Australians said Australia should help Pacific countries to pay for Covid-19 vaccines.

There is also strong support for Australia to play a role in building strong economies in the Pacific. Eight in ten Australians (84%) favour providing aid to the Pacific for long-term economic development, and 82% favour providing aid ‘to help prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific’. In a different question in 2019, 73% said Australia should try to prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific.

Three-quarters of Australians (75%) are in favour of providing aid to Pacific Island states for climate change action. The same number (75%) support Australia hosting a UN Climate Conference, which has been floated as a proposal that could involve Australia co-hosting with Pacific Island nations.

Potential Chinese military base in the Pacific

The Australian public share the government’s concerns about the potential for a Chinese military base in the Pacific. In a nationwide poll in April 2022, 88% of Australians say they are either ‘very‘ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about ‘China potentially opening a military base in a Pacific Island country’. A security agreement between Solomon Islands and China was signed in April during the fieldwork for this poll, and media had also reported on a leaked draft security agreement in late March, prior to fieldwork. In a different question in 2019, a smaller majority of Australians (55%) said China opening a military base in a Pacific Island country would pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years.

Foreign policy priorities

The public hold mixed views on the question of which partners, regions and forums should be the highest priority for Australia’s foreign policy. Four in ten Australians (43%) say that ‘focusing on Australia’s region, including Asia and the Pacific’ should be the highest priority for the federal government’s foreign policy. A third (33%) prioritise a globalist approach, saying that the government’s highest priority should be ‘focusing on global cooperation through multilateral institutions, including the United Nations’. Only one in five (20%) say Australia’s focus should be on ‘cooperation with Western countries and traditional partners, including the United States’.

Feelings thermometer

For the first time, Russia has fallen to the bottom of the Lowy Institute ‘feelings thermometer’, a measurement of Australians’ perceptions about countries, territories and institutions on a scale of 0° (coldest feelings) to 100° (warmest feelings).

Russia registers an icy 19°, a 22-degree drop in a single year, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This represents the greatest single-year fall in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll feelings thermometer.

By contrast, Australians feel very warmly towards Ukraine, with the country receiving a reading of 69°, 18 degrees higher than the last time Ukraine featured on the thermometer in 2015. Australians feel the same level of warmth towards France (69°).

While Russia has replaced China at the bottom of the feelings thermometer, feelings towards China in 2022 remain very cool at 33°. Australian views of Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover of the country remain largely unchanged at a cool 36°. Attitudes towards Myanmar have warmed marginally since 2021, marking a five-degree improvement to reach 46°.

Both India and Indonesia receive warm readings of 57°, marking Indonesia’s highest result in 17 years. Australians feel warmly towards the United Nations and the European Union, registering 61° and 62° respectively.

South Korea (63°), Taiwan (64°) and Vietnam (64°) all receive warm readings in 2022. Feelings towards Papua New Guinea are stable at 61°, and Tonga registers 67°. Feelings towards the United States have warmed three degrees to 65° in the second year of the Biden administration.

Feelings towards Japan (74°), the United Kingdom (77°) and Canada (80°) remain very warm in 2022. This year, New Zealand again leads the feelings thermometer, receiving a very warm 86°, steady from 2021.

Methodology

The methodology for the Lowy Institute Poll 2022 is available here.

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Acknowledgements

Several questions in this report were modelled on those developed by other polling organisations, including the Pew Research Center, Australian Election Study, Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, Ipsos MORI, Essential, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Fieldwork was managed by Matilda Page and Karly Day of the Social Research Centre. Andrew Ward, Benjamin Phillips, Dina Neiger, Jack Barton and Storm Logan of the Social Research Centre provided design and weighting advice. John Davis of OmniPoll provided independent consulting and reviewed the questionnaires and report. Stephen Hutchings designed the interactive website. Clare Caldwell at the Lowy Institute edited the report.