Lowy Institute Poll 2020 Report

Global powers and world leaders

Trust in global powers

The year 2020 has been marked by disasters, from Australia’s bushfire crisis to the global Covid-19 pandemic. In such uncertain times, Australians are less trusting of most countries around the world than in the past.

China is the clearest example: in the past two years, trust in China to act responsibly in the world has more than halved, down from a majority (52%) in 2018 to only 23% saying they trust China in 2020. This is a nine-point fall from 2019 for those that trust China somewhat or a great deal.

This distrust was further reflected in the Lowy Institute’s COVIDpoll conducted in April, in which only 31% of Australians say China has handled the Covid-19 outbreak very or fairly well to date. When thinking about the way China handled the outbreak, 68% say they feel ‘less favourable towards China’s system of government’.

Australians typically place more trust in liberal democracies such as the United Kingdom and Japan, although that has also slipped compared with two years ago. The UK garners the highest level of trust from Australians, with 84% saying they trust the UK either a great deal or somewhat. After a year that has seen a new prime minister, the departure from the European Union and mistakes in handling the pandemic, the number who trust the UK a great deal ‘to act responsibly in the world’ has fallen 21 points compared with 2018, to 24%.

Many Australians are unimpressed with the UK’s handling of Covid-19, with only 30% of the respondents to COVIDpoll saying the UK has done very or fairly well so far.

Japan has recorded high levels of trust from the Australian people in recent years. In 2020, eight in ten Australians (82%) trust Japan somewhat or a great deal to act responsibly in the world. But only 22% say they trust Japan a great deal, an 11-point fall from 2018.

Australians’ trust in China to act responsibly in the world has more than halved in the past two years

There is a wide gap between Australians’ trust in the United Kingdom and Japan and their trust in the United States. Around half (51%) say they trust the United States a great deal or somewhat to act responsibly in the world, unchanged from 2019. More Australians (61%) trusted the United States during President Trump’s first year in office in 2017. In 2020, trust in the United States is 32 points lower than at the high point between 2009 and 2011 (83%), during the administration of President Barack Obama.

According to Australians, the United States’ response to Covid-19 has been even worse than China’s. In April’s COVIDpoll, only one in ten (10%)say the United States is doing very or fairly well in handling the Covid-19 outbreak, which ranks the United States at the bottom of a list of six countries.

Reports of rising Indian nationalism and protests against new Indian citizenship laws may have affected levels of trust in India this year. Fewer than half (45%) trust India to act responsibly in the world, a 14-point drop from 2018. Closer to home, trust in Indonesia has also declined to its lowest point in Lowy Institute polling. Only a third (36%) express trust in Indonesia to act responsibly in the world, a 16-point fall from 2017.

Russia sits with China as one of the least-trusted global powers for Australians, with only 24% saying they trust Russia to act responsibly in the world. A mere 2% of Australians say they have a great deal of trust in Russia.

Confidence in world leaders

The continuing decline in trust in China corresponds with falling levels of confidence in China’s leader Xi Jinping. Only 22% of Australians have either a lot or some confidence in President Xi ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’, an eight-point drop from 2019, and 21 points lower than in 2018.

In 2019, more Australians expressed confidence in China’s President Xi than in US President Donald Trump. But this has reversed in 2020, despite the widely-publicised US House of Representatives vote to impeach President Trump. Only one in three Australians (30%) have confidence in President Trump, but this is five points up from 2019, and eight points ahead of Xi Jinping. (It should be noted that the Lowy Institute Poll fieldwork took place from 16–29 March, well before the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in the United States.) Only China’s Xi Jinping and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un receive fewer votes of confidence from Australians than President Trump.

Lacking confidence in President Trump, Australians are leaning towards a change of US president in the November presidential election. When Australians were asked in April which candidate they prefer, 73% say former Vice President Joe Biden, if he is the Democratic candidate. Only 23% say they prefer President Trump (see COVIDpoll on page 22).

For the second year in a row, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tops Australians’ list of global leaders, with 87% of Australians saying they either have some or a lot of confidence in her to do the right thing in world affairs.

Almost three quarters of Australians (73%) express confidence in Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, an increase of seven points from 2018.

Six in ten Australians express confidence in Prime Minister Scott Morrison (60%) and in the leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese (58%). Levels of confidence in Prime Minister Morrison have not shifted significantly from his 2019 result (58%), while Mr Albanese’s result was six points higher than former Opposition leader Bill Shorten’s result last year (52%).

Only 55% of Australians say they have confidence in UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a result which may reflect Australians’ views towards Brexit, as demonstrated in past Lowy Institute polling¹. Prime Minister Johnson was re-elected in 2019, and he inspires confidence in fewer Australians than his predecessor, former Prime Minister Theresa May, did in 2018 (68%). (On 27 March, it was announced that Prime Minister Johnson had contracted the novel coronavirus, which may have affected a very small number of results collected between 27 and 29 March for this Poll.)

Only Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un receive fewer votes of confidence from Australians than Donald Trump

Australians’ confidence in India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has improved slightly, following his re-election in 2019. This year, 42% of Australians have either some or a lot of confidence in Prime Minister Modi ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’, an increase of five points since he was last included in the Poll in 2018.

Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo was also re-elected in 2019. Consistent with low levels of trust in Indonesia, only one third of Australians (32%) express confidence in Jokowi, which has not changed significantly from 2019 (34%).

Although many Australians express support for US President Trump’s decision to meet North Korea’s leader in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-un has consistently received very few votes of confidence from the Australian public. Only 6% say in 2020 they have some or a lot of confidence in Kim Jong-un to do the right thing in world affairs.