Executive Summary
Trust in global powers
Trust in China is at the lowest level ever recorded in the Lowy Institute Poll, with only 23% of Australians saying they trust China somewhat or a lot ‘to act responsibly in the world’, a 29-point fall since 2018. Most Australians trust the United Kingdom (84%) and Japan (82%). A bare majority (51%) trust the United States, which is steady from 2019. Less than half of Australians trust India (45%), a 14-point drop from 2018, and even fewer trust Indonesia (36%), a 16-point fall from 2017. Only 24% of Australians say they trust Russia.
Confidence in world leaders
Only one in three Australians (30%) express some or a lot of confidence in US President Donald Trump ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’, a five-point increase from 2019.
Confidence in China’s President Xi Jinping has fallen sharply in the past two years, with only 22% of Australians expressing confidence in him. This represents an eight-point drop from 2019, and is 21 points lower than his result in 2018.
New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tops the list of leaders again, with 87% of Australians expressing confidence in her to do the right thing in world affairs. Seven in ten (73%) express confidence in Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, an increase of seven points from 2018.
Six in ten Australians express confidence in Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (60%) and in Opposition leader Anthony Albanese (58%). Around half (55%) have confidence in UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Four in ten Australians (42%) have confidence in India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even fewer Australians (32%) express confidence in Indonesian President Joko Widodo. A mere 6% of Australians say they have confidence in North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.
Relations with superpowers
More than half the country (55%) say Australia’s relationship with the United States is more important than Australia’s relationship with China. Only four in ten Australians (40%) today choose China as the more important relationship. The gap between the two superpowers on this question is now 15 points, whereas the two were inseparable in 2017.
In the Lowy Institute’s COVIDpoll, fielded in April 2020, nine in ten Australians (93%) say Australia has handled the Covid-19 pandemic very or somewhat well so far. A third (31%) say China has handled the outbreak well, and only 10% say the United States has handled it well so far. A majority of Australians (68%) feel ‘less favourable towards China’s system of government’ when thinking about China’s handling of Covid-19. A third (37%) say China will be more powerful than it was before the pandemic, while 27% say it will be less powerful. Half (53%) say the United States will be less powerful than before the crisis.
The United States
Three quarters of Australians (78%) say that the alliance with the United States is either very or fairly important to Australia’s security, an increase of six points from 2019. The vast majority of Australians (88%) support the four-way dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the United States, known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, resurrected in 2017.
Several of US President Donald Trump’s signature policies are unpopular with Australians. Although two-thirds approve of President Trump’s negotiations with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un (66%) and his efforts to improve relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin (63%), only one third (35%) approve of President Trump’s administration ‘increasing tariffs on imported goods from other countries’. Even fewer approve of President Trump ‘criticising the defence spending’ of US allies (24%) and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (22%). Only 19% approve of President Trump ‘withdrawing the United States from international climate change agreements’.
China
More than half (55%) see China as an economic partner, rather than a security threat (41%), although an overwhelming 94% of Australians agree that the Australian government should work ‘to find other markets for Australia to reduce our economic dependence on China’. Eight in ten Australians (82%) would approve of the government ‘imposing travel and financial sanctions on Chinese officials associated with human rights abuses’.
A majority of Australians (59%) would support Australia ‘jointly funding aid projects with China in the Pacific and Asia’. The majority (57%) also say the government should restrict ‘joint scientific research between Australia and China in defence and security-related fields’. Four in ten Australians (39%) say that Chinese companies should be allowed to ‘supply technology for critical infrastructure in Australia’. Only 39% of Australians support ‘conducting joint military exercises’ with China.
Almost half of the population (49%) say that ‘China’s economy will slow down and the Australian economy will suffer’, an increase of five points from 2016. A similar number (48%) say ‘China’s economy will continue to grow strongly and this will benefit Australia’, a view that was held by the majority of the country (52%) in 2016.
Feelings of safety and Threats to Australia’s interests
Only half of Australians (50%) say they feel safe in 2020, a record low in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll, and a 28-point drop since 2018. Three-quarters of Australians say Covid-19 (76%) and ‘drought and water shortages’ (77%) pose critical Threats to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years. Seven in ten (71%) say that ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’ is a critical threat, a 20-point increase from 2019. A majority of Australians see ‘environmental disasters such as bushfires and floods’ (67%) and climate change (59%) as critical threats. Only 46% of Australians say international terrorism is a critical threat, down 15 points from 2019. And 42% now say ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ is a critical threat, a seven-point drop from 2019.
Economic outlook and free trade
Australians’ optimism about the economy has fallen to record lows, although a slight majority (52%) remain optimistic. This is the lowest level of optimism recorded in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll. It represents a 13-point fall from 2019, and is 34 points lower than the high point in 2009 and 2010 (86%). In COVIDpoll, seven in ten Australians (70%) say globalisation is mostly good for Australia, unchanged from 2019.
A majority of Australians say that free trade agreements with the European Union (58%) and the United Kingdom (56%) would be good for Australia. Only four in ten (44%) say that a free trade agreement with India would be good for Australia.
International students
A bare majority of the population (52%) say the number of international students enrolled at Australian universities is about right. Four in ten (43%) say it is too high, while only 3% say that the number of international students is too low.
Climate change and global warming
More than half (56%) say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem’ and ‘we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs’, five points down from 2019 but 20 points higher than the low point of 36% in 2012. Around half the country say Australia’s approach to climate change has had a negative effect on Australia’s relations with Pacific island countries (51%) and a negative effect on Australia’s reputation in the world (47%).
Intelligence and law enforcement agencies
Eight in ten Australians (80%) agree Australia’s intelligence agencies are effective at protecting our national security. A majority (59%) say that Australia’s intelligence agencies ‘have got the balance right between protecting national security and also being appropriately open and transparent’ with the public about their activities. The same number (59%) also agree the Australian government ‘has got the balance right between the need for press freedom and the need to enforce the law and protect national security’.
Foreign policy, global cooperation and values
When asked about Australia’s priorities in the event of a clash between economic interests and democratic values, six in ten Australians (60%) say democratic values are more important, whereas one third (38%) say economic interests are more important. In the case where a clash occurs between the global interest in solving global problems and the domestic interests of individual countries, 66% of Australians say the ‘government should prioritise Australia’s domestic interests over reaching a global agreement’ in an international institution. One third of Australians (31%) say that the ‘government should prioritise global agreement over Australia’s domestic interests’.
Democracies around the world
Nine in ten Australians (90%) say the United Kingdom is a democracy, and eight in ten (81%) say the same about the United States. A similar number (79%) recognise Japan as a democracy. The majority of Australians agree that India (57%), Papua New Guinea (53%) and Taiwan (52%) are democracies. However, only 39% agree that Indonesia is a democracy, in a five-point increase from 2019. A third of Australians (37%) see Hong Kong as a democracy, while only one in ten Australians (10%) agree China is a democracy.
Feelings thermometer
Canada leads the feelings thermometer in 2020 at 79°, although this is five degrees lower than in 2018. Feelings towards the United States in 2020 sit steady at 62°. Feelings towards Hong Kong and South Korea have both fallen five degrees to 58° and 57°. Australian perceptions of Vietnam (58°), Papua New Guinea (57°) and Taiwan (57°) remain warm. And feelings towards India (52°) and Indonesia (51°) are neutral.
After a nine-degree fall in 2019, China has registered a further ten-degree drop to 39° in 2020. Both of these consecutive falls in sentiment represent the greatest single-year declines in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll feelings thermometer.
Feelings towards Russia remain cool at 42°, 13 points lower than in 2010. The Palestinian Territories receive a cool 39° from Australians, eight degrees lower than Israel (47°). Iran and Saudi Arabia are last on the thermometer at 33° and 32°.
The 2020 Lowy Institute Poll reports the results of a nationally representative online and telephone survey conducted between 16 and 29 March 2020 by the Social Research Centre with a sample size of 2448 Australian adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.0% and design effect estimated at 1.93. COVIDpoll was conducted between 14 and 27 April 2020 by the Social Research Centre with a sample size of 3036 Australian adults. The margin of error is approximately 1.8% and design effect estimated at 1.86. See 2020 Methodology.