Executive Summary
Relations with major powers
Only 32% of Australians say they trust China to ‘act responsibly in the world’, in a 20-point fall since 2018 and the lowest level of trust in China ever recorded in our polling. A bare majority of Australians (52%) trust the United States to act responsibly, which is steady from last year.
Half of Australians (50%) believe ‘the Australian government should put a higher priority on maintaining strong relations with the United States, even if this might harm our relations with China’. A sizeable minority (44%) say Australia ‘should put a higher priority on building stronger relations with China, even if this might harm our relations with the United States’.
Confidence in world leaders
Only 30% of Australians have confidence in China’s President Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs, a 13-point drop since 2018. One-quarter of Australians (25%) have confidence in US President Donald Trump, a five-point drop from 2018.
Australians’ highest level of confidence among the nine leaders polled is placed in New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern (88% saying ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence). The Australian leaders follow, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison (58%) and former Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (52%). Eighteen points behind is Indonesian President Joko Widodo (34%), followed by US President Trump and Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi (both 25%). This means US President Donald Trump is only ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin (21%) and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un (7%).
China
A majority of Australians (74%) say Australia is too economically dependent on China. A sizeable 68% say the Australian government is allowing too much investment from China. More than three-quarters of the population say ‘Australia should do more to resist China’s military activities in our region, even if this affects our economic relationship’ (77%, an increase of 11 points since 2015) and believe that ‘China’s infrastructure investment projects across Asia are part of China’s plans for regional domination’ (79%). Only 44% say China’s infrastructure investment projects are good for the region.
A majority of Australians (60%) would support the Australian military conducting freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and other disputed areas claimed by China. However, only 43% of Australians are in favour of the Australian military becoming involved if China invaded Taiwan and the United States decided to intervene. Almost two-thirds of Australians (62%) would not support using the Australian military if China initiated a military conflict over disputed islands or territories. Only a quarter of Australians (27%) agree that Australia is doing enough to pressure China to improve human rights.
US alliance
Almost three-quarters of Australians (72%) say Australia’s alliance with the United States is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security, a four-point drop from 2018. A clear majority (73% each) agree the US alliance is a natural extension of our shared values and ideals and that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia was under threat. A majority of Australians (56%) say the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China.
However, almost half (46%) agree the United States is ‘in decline relative to China and so the alliance is of decreasing importance’, a five-point increase from 2011. A sizeable majority of Australians (69%) say that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’. Two-thirds (66%) agree that Donald Trump has weakened Australia’s alliance with the United States.
Australia’s best friend in the world
A majority of Australians (59%) say New Zealand is our best friend in the world, followed by the United States (20%) and the United Kingdom (15%). Only 4% say China is our best friend in the world, which has halved since 2017. Only 2% see Japan and 1% see Indonesia as Australia’s best friend in the world.
Threats to Australia
Climate change tops the list of threats to Australia’s vital interests over the next ten years, with 64% of Australians saying it is ‘a critical threat’. Australians have similarly high levels of concern about cyberattacks (62% saying critical threat), international terrorism (61%) and North Korea’s nuclear program (60%).
A majority of Australians (55%) say that ‘if China opened a military base in a Pacific Island country’, this would be a critical threat to the nation’s vital interests. Concern about foreign interference in Australian politics has increased, with almost half of the population (49%, an eight-point increase from 2018) seeing it as a critical threat.
Use of military force
A strong majority of Australians (80%) say they would support the use of the Australian military to ‘stop a government from committing genocide and killing large numbers of its own people’. More than three-quarters (77%) would support the Australian military restoring ‘law and order in a Pacific nation’.
Half the population (50%) say Australian military forces should be used ‘to fight against violent extremist groups in Iraq and Syria’, an 11-point fall from 2018. However, 63% say they are in favour of the use of Australian military forces to ‘fight against violent extremist groups in Southeast Asia’.
Foreign technology
When asked about priorities for government in deciding which foreign companies should be allowed to supply new technology for important services in Australia, almost half (44%) of the population say the first priority for the Australian government should be ‘protecting Australians from foreign state intrusion’. Significantly fewer (28% each) believe the government’s first priority should be ‘bringing the most sophisticated technology to Australia’ or ‘keeping prices down for Australian consumers’.
Climate change and global warming
Six in ten Australians (61%) say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem’, about which ‘we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs’. This is a 25-point increase since 2012, equal to 2008 levels of concern.
Almost half of Australians (47%) say that the main priority for the federal government when thinking about energy policy should be ‘reducing carbon emissions’. Fewer (38%) say that ‘reducing household bills’ should be the main priority and only 15% nominate ‘reducing the risk of power blackouts’ as the main priority.
Immigration
Fewer than half of Australians (47%, down seven points from 2018) say that the total number of migrants coming to Australia each year is ‘too high’. This level remains higher (by ten points) than in 2014. Almost three-quarters (71%) of Australians say ‘Australian cities are already too crowded’. A majority of Australians (67%) agree that ‘overall, immigration has a positive impact on the economy’. The population is divided on the question of whether ‘immigrants are a burden on our social welfare system’ (48% agreeing, 50% disagreeing).
Economic outlook, free trade and globalisation
A majority of Australians (65%) are either optimistic or very optimistic about Australia’s economic performance in the world over the next five years, although this is nine points lower than in 2017.
Three-quarters of Australians (75%) say free trade is ‘good for [their] own standard of living’, up eight points since 2017, and 71% agree free trade is good for the Australian economy.
A solid majority say free trade is good for Australian companies (65%) and creating jobs in Australia (61%, up six points from 2017).
While a strong majority (72%) of Australians say globalisation is ‘mostly good’ for Australia, this has fallen six points from 2017 in a return to 2008 levels.
Democracy
Support for democracy is stable, with 65% of Australians saying ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’. One in five (22%) say that ‘in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable’, while 12% say that ‘for someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have’. A strong majority of Australians (70%) are ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ satisfied with the way democracy works in Australia.
Indonesia
Only 34% of Australians agree that ‘Indonesia is a democracy’. A majority of Australians (61%, up nine points from 2018) say ‘Australia is managing its relationship with Indonesia well’. As in past years of polling, most Australians agree that Indonesia is an important economy to Australia (62%). However, only around a third of Australians (37%) say the Indonesian government has worked hard to fight terrorism.
Pacific Islands
Australians are split about some aspects of the government’s Pacific step-up. Seven in ten Australians (73%) agree that ‘Australia should try to prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific’. A majority (54%) also agree that ‘Australia should partner with Papua New Guinea and the United States in redeveloping a joint military base on Manus Island’. However, 49% agree and 48% disagree that ‘Australia should spend more than it currently does on helping the Pacific’.
Feelings thermometer
Australians hold very warm feelings towards New Zealand, which tops the feelings thermometer at 86°. The United Kingdom remains in high regard at 76°, although it is down six points from 2018. The United States has dropped four degrees to 63°. Australians’ feelings towards China have cooled nine degrees to 49°. Russia (43°), Saudi Arabia (34°) and North Korea (25°) are again on the cooler side of the thermometer.
The 2019 Lowy Institute Poll reports the results of a nationally representative online and telephone survey conducted on behalf of the Lowy Institute by the Social Research Centre between 12 and 25 March 2019 with a sample size of 2130 Australian adults. On a simple random sample of 2130 responses, the margin of error is approximately 2.1%. Where a complex sample is used, the ‘design effect’ measures the additional variance in comparison with a simple random sample. The design effect for this survey is estimated at 2.40. See 2019 Methodology.