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Threats to Australia’s vital interests

In 2022, 68% saw Russia’s foreign policy as a critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years.

Question Threats to Australia’s vital interests

Here is a list of possible threats to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years. For each one, please select whether you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all.

Responses from 2022.

  1. 0%
  2. 25%
  3. 50%
  4. 75%
  5. 100%
Cyberattacks from other countries
64
33
3
[object Object]
A military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan
64
32
4
[object Object]
Climate change
62
27
11
[object Object]
North Korea’s nuclear program
58
35
7
[object Object]
A severe downturn in the global economy
55
42
3
[object Object]
The rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world
55
40
4
[object Object]
Foreign interference in Australian politics
49
45
6
[object Object]
International terrorism
48
45
7
[object Object]
The spread of infectious diseases internationally
42
48
9
[object Object]

From 2006–2009, this question asked about ‘global warming’ rather than ‘climate change’. In 2020, this question asked about ‘novel coronavirus (Covid-19) and other potential epidemics’ rather than ‘the spread of infectious diseases internationally’. In 2021–2023, it asked about ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’.

  • Critical threat
  • An important but not critical threat
  • Not an important threat at all
  • Don’t know
Total
All groups

2026 observation

Since its first edition in 2005, the Lowy Institute Poll has sought Australians’ views on a range of possible threats to ‘the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years’.

For the fourth year in a row, respondents listed ‘cyberattacks from other countries’ as the leading threat to Australia. Dropping three points from last year, 62% of Australians see these types of attacks as a ‘critical threat’.

The next-highest ranked threat was ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’, with 60% of Australians listing it as a ‘critical threat’ in this year’s Poll. Closely behind was ‘the rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world’ and ‘international terrorism’, with 59% of Australians listing either of these options as ‘critical threats’ to Australia in the next ten years.

‘Conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ fell four points from last year’s Poll, with 57% of Australians listing this as a ‘critical threat’ to Australia in the next ten years. ‘Foreign interference in Australian politics’ and ‘conflict in the Middle East’ followed closely behind, with 56% of Australians listing either of these as a ‘critical threat’.

Concerns about ‘North Korea’s nuclear program’ and ‘climate change’ fell five points from last year, with 49% of Australians listing these as ‘critical threats’ in this year’s Poll.

A slim majority of Australians (52%) listed ‘a breakdown in social cohesion’ as a ‘critical threat’, and 35% of respondents listed antisemitism as a ‘critical threat’ to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years. Large minorities of Australians listed ‘the spread of infectious diseases internationally’ (45%) and ‘Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’ (38%) as ‘critical threats’.

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