In 2024, 34% of Australians said China has the most influence in Pacific Island countries.

According to the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Aid Map, Australia is by far the largest aid donor to Pacific Island countries, accounting for 38% of total aid flows over the past 15 years. This dwarfs China’s contribution of 9% over the same period.

Australia has also become the region’s largest bilateral lender through its budget support programs to Papua New Guinea, and the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific, with committed investments totalling $2 billion. Australia has signed numerous security agreements with Pacific Island countries, including the Papua New Guinea–Australia Mutual Defence Treaty (Pukpuk Treaty) in October 2025. Australian foreign minister Penny Wong has said that Australia is in a ‘permanent contest’ with China for influence in the Pacific.

More respondents now say China (39%), rather than Australia (33%), is the most influential country in the Pacific Islands — a reversal of last year’s result. The proportions nominating the United States (18%) or New Zealand (7%) as most influential remain essentially unchanged from 2025. This finding sits at odds with the resources Australia commits to the region.