The Pacific Islands region has become a key arena in the contest for influence between China and the United States and its partners. Both superpowers have sought to secure military access in Pacific Islands countries and have increased their aid, financing, and diplomatic footprints in the region. Australia and New Zealand — both members of the Pacific Islands Forum — have also ramped up their diplomatic, aid, and security sector engagement with the Pacific.

In 2024, a new question tested Australians’ perceptions about influence in the region. One-third of Australians (34%) perceive China to be the most influential player in the Pacific Islands region, slightly more than those who say Australia (31%) has the most influence. Only one-quarter (25%) nominate the United States as most influential, while a small minority (8%) select New Zealand.

The prominence of China in Australians’ perceptions of regional influence accords with previous Lowy Institute Polls, which revealed high anxieties about China’s presence in the Pacific Islands. Last year, almost nine in ten Australians (87%) were somewhat or very concerned about China potentially ‘opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country’.

Influence in Pacific Islands countries