Over the past decade, both China and the United States have sought to strengthen their security, diplomatic, and development footprints to increase their influence in the strategically important Pacific Islands region.

However, Donald Trump’s election has cast uncertainty over the United States’ future involvement in the region. China, meanwhile, continues to try to expand its presence, including by inducing countries to formally recognise it instead of Taiwan — Nauru was the latest country to switch recognition to China in 2024 — or by seeking deals allowing military or security service access to Pacific Island countries.

Australia and New Zealand — both members of the Pacific Islands Forum — have ramped up their engagement with the Pacific over many years. Australia remains the single largest aid donor to the Pacific by a considerable margin, and is the only country to have a diplomatic mission in every Pacific Islands capital. In recent years, Australia has agreed a number of deals with Pacific countries that combine aid support with provisions to ensure Australia is consulted on security matters.

In 2025, four in ten Australians (39%) say their own country has the most influence in the Pacific Islands, surpassing the one-third who think China (34%) wields the most influence in the region. Only 18% selected the United States, and 7% New Zealand.

Last year, when Australians were asked the same question, China topped this metric. But Australia has since gained eight points, overtaking China, which remained steady. Meanwhile, the United States has dropped seven points.

Influence in Pacific Island countries