US President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are their parties’ presumptive nominees for the 2024 US presidential election. President Biden is the clear favourite for Australians, with two-thirds (68%) preferring to see him elected.

A significant minority of Australians, nearly one in three (29%), however, would prefer to see Donald Trump elected. In terms of demographic characteristics, a preference for Trump is higher among those who lean politically towards One Nation (78%) or the Liberal–National Coalition (46%) than those who lean towards Labor or the Greens (both 14%).

When asked similar questions in the lead-up to the four most recent US presidential elections, a clear majority of Australians expressed a preference for the Democratic over the Republican candidate. However, support for Donald Trump in Australia has risen markedly compared to his previous two presidential candidacies in 2020 and 2016, and is higher than support for any Republican presidential candidate included in past editions of the Lowy institute Poll.