Security and defence

Potential military conflict between China and the United States

In the event of a military conflict between China and the United States, more than half of Australians (56%) say Australia should remain neutral, an increase of five points from 2022. Four in ten (42%) say Australia should support the United States, down four points on 2022.

It is interesting, however, to compare this to views on a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which many experts see as the most likely trigger for a conflict between the United States and China. Australia’s response to such a scenario has also been the subject of growing debate among commentators.

For the first time, we asked Australians if they would support a range of responses, acting together with the United States, if China invaded Taiwan. The vast majority (80%) would support ‘accepting Taiwanese refugees into Australia’. A similarly strong majority (76%) say they would support ‘Australia imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on China’.

Two-thirds (64%) would support ‘Australia sending arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government’. Six in ten (61%) would support ‘using the Australian Navy to help prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan’. The only option not supported by a majority is ‘sending Australian military personnel to Taiwan to help defend it from China’ (42%).

Security and defence
Potential military conflict between China and the United States

Question

In the event of a military conflict between China and United States, please say which one of the following statements comes closest to your own personal view.

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

2021

2022

2023

Polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in the United States in August 2022 found that in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a majority of Americans would support imposing diplomatic and economic sanctions on China (76%), accepting Taiwanese refugees into the United States (67%), sending additional arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government (65%), and using the US Navy to prevent Beijing from imposing a blockade against Taiwan (62%). Four in ten (40%) would support sending US troops to Taiwan’s defence.