The public has reported high levels of support for Australia’s alliance with the United States over the 18 years of the Lowy Institute Poll, despite fluctuating levels of trust in the United States and confidence in US leaders. Australians increasingly see conflict in our region as a possibility, which likely adds to the importance placed upon the alliance with the United States. But there are also some concerns about the implications of Australia’s relationship with the United States.

In 2022, the number of Australians who see the ANZUS alliance as important to their security has returned to record highs. Nine in ten Australians (87%) say the alliance is ‘very important’ or ‘fairly important’ to Australia’s security. This marks a nine-point increase from 2021, and is equal to the highest levels of support expressed in 2012, during former President Barack Obama’s administration. However, warmth towards and trust in the United States have not returned to the high levels that were recorded during the Obama years.

Nevertheless, trust in the United States has rebounded from its historic low levels in 2019 and 2020. Two-thirds of Australians (65%) trust the United States to act responsibly. This result is stable from 2021, but remains 18 points below the levels of trust expressed towards the United States in 2009 and 2011 (83%).

In 2022, fewer Australians express confidence in US President Joe Biden than in 2021. Six in ten Australians (58%) say they have some or a lot of confidence in President Biden, an 11-point decrease from his inauguration year of 2021. This remains 28 points above the confidence expressed in former President Donald Trump in 2020 (30%).

More than three-quarters of Australians (77%) now agree that ‘Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests’, an increase of eight points since 2019. However, a similar number (76%) also agree that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia were under threat. Two-thirds (64%) agree that ‘the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China’, an eight-point increase from 2019.

Reliability of the US security guarantee